The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days indicates moderate to heavy rainfall in most parts of the country starting form 06 December 2019. Specifically heavy rains are expected in the northern and central regions from 06 December 2019, these rains area associated with the passage of a tropical storm which is currently located in the Indian Ocean. Cumulative amounts exceeding 100mm may fall in coastal areas of Saanag, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Given the forecast, there is a high risk of flash floods in the areas where heavy rains area expected. Of great concern is the fisheries and livestock sectors along the coastal areas which may be impacted negatively by the heavy rains. Further, heavy rains will be expected on 09 and 10 December 2019 within the Juba and Shabelle river basins inside Somalia and within the Ethiopian highlands. River levels along the Shabelle remain high and are anticipated to remain so in the coming week. There is a high risk of flooding along the Shabelle River. Observed river levels along the Juba increased sharply over the last few days following heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands. River levels at Luuq and Dollow are at moderate risk of flooding while levels at Bardheere are currently at high risk level. The high levels will be sustained in the coming days and are expected to start decreasing towards the end of the forecast period.

Tropical Storm PAWAN expected to lead to winds of medium strength with moderate to heavy rainfall amounts in parts of Somaliland, Puntland and Central regions of Somalia The Tropical Storm (TS) initially named SIX that developed in the northern Indian Ocean has now been assigned the name PAWAN after sustaining a speed of more than 39 miles per hour for two days. The probability of the TS landing in the coastal areas of Puntland has increased from (10% TO 35%) over the last two days and is expected to make a land fall in Nugaal region in the next 24 hours. The influence of PAWAN may start being felt in the coastal areas of Bari, Mudug and Sanaag regions in the next 12 hours where moderate to heavy rains and strong winds are expected. The rains will then spread further inland to many areas within Somaliland, Puntland and central regions on 07 and 08 December 2019. The storm poses an immediate threat to the shipping lane that links Somalia and Gulf states. Other impacts expected include destruction of property and infrastructure including roads, buildings and boats due to the strong winds. Flash floods may also disrupt normal activities along the tropical storm path. Communities living along this areas are advised to take necessary precautions. SWALIM and partners are monitoring the situation and will update you accordingly. For more details on tropical storm tracking you can consult: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ or [email protected].

Rainfall activities continued in parts of Somalia with some regions experiencing flash floods following heavy downpours. Some of the areas affected by flash floods in this week include Mogadishu, Erigavo, Zeylac and a few pockets of Lower Juba. The last two days have however seen a significant reduction of rainfall activities across the country as we approach the end of the rainy season. Shabelle River: Since the last week of October more than 50% of Belet Weyne inhabitants fled from their homes. With the reduction of rainfall activities in the Ethiopian highlands and within Somalia, flood waters have now completely receded and most people returned to their homes. There is no risk of flooding in the coming week. Satellite image analysis indicate that more than 128,066 Hectares of land along the Shabelle of which more than 50% is agricultural land (80,041 ha) was inundated during the month of October and November. On the positive side, riverine farmers would make strategic use of the flood water to secure a good off season harvest, before it dries up in the next month. Extended season also brings extended agricultural labor opportunities and related wages. Juba River: Along Juba River the levels dropped gradually over the last two weeks consequently reducing the flood impacts. Riverine floods along the Juba during the month of October and early November left a total of 79,229 Hectares of land inundated of which 29, 748 Hectares is agricultural land. This has damaged farmland and crops leading to livelihood losses. The levels are expected to decrease in the coming week with no risk of flooding towards the end of the week. In Bay and Bakool regions: There was a reduction of rainfall activities in these regions over the previous weeks, which improved the situation in terms of flooding. Puntland, Somaliland and Central regions: Heavy rains recorded from 22 November left parts of Somaliland and Puntland flooded. However, the situation has so far improved and there is no risk of flash floods in the coming week. The rainfall forecast for the coming week shows a significant reduction of rainfall activities across Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. As a result, flood situation is expected to improve during the week in forecast. Larger parts of the north eastern regions have remained dry since the beginning of the season. This includes great parts of Bari, Mudug and Nugaal region. Hot and dry conditions are expected to persist in the coming week calling a cause for concern due to the prolonged dry period which may lead to further depletion of water resources and pasture in the coming weeks.

The rains in the Juba and Shabelle river basin and the Ethiopian highlands continued to subside giving relief to the flooding experienced in the riverine areas. Along the Juba river, flood waters affected about 78 settlements. Analysis from satellite images indicate that a total of 79,229 Hectares were inundated as of 10 November 2019. This includes 29,748 ha of agricultural land and 48,481 ha of natural vegetation.

The last two weeks saw a significant decrease in rainfall activities in Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Consequently, there was a gradual reduction of river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Flood waters also have been receding in Belet Weyne,Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi in Hiraan Region, this has left the local communities and authorities with concern following damage of properties and livelihoods and possible spread of diseases. Currently, the Shabelle River remains at moderate risk of flooding while the Juba River is at no risk of flooding this week. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days is calling for moderate to heavy rains across the country as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. In particular heavy rains of more than 100mm are expected in Bay, Bakool, Middle and Lower Shabelle regions within the southern areas of the country. Similar amounts of rainfall are also foreseen in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Sool regions in the north. River levels along the Shabelle remain high and are anticipated to remain so in the coming week given the current situation and foreseen rains. There remains a moderate risk of flooding along the river. Observed river levels along the Juba continued to drop and are currently within the normal at this time of the year. Mild to moderate levels of flash floods are expected in low lying areas of Bay, Bakool and northern regions in the coming week.

The ongoing floods along the Shabelle River in Somalia has affected Belet Weyne District the worst. In Belet Weyne town, the river has remained at bankful level for the seventh day running. Flood waters have continued to ravage the town displacing more than 160,000 persons. Analysis from satellite images indicate that a total of 15,504 Hectares have been inundated as of 30 October 2019. This includes 3,265 ha of irrigated agriculture, 7,332 ha of rain-fed agriculture and 4,907 ha of natural vegetation. A total of 111 settlements are also under water. It is worth noting that the current flood extent in Belet Weyne town has not been detected due to the intrinsic nature of radar and optical images used (Sentinel-1 and 2 respectively). The Sentinel-1 imagery may significantly underestimate the presence of standing floodwater in dense built-up areas due to backscattering of the radar signal, while Sentinel-2 imagery is affected by cloud cover over Belet Weyne.

The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days is calling for moderate to heavy rains across the country as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. In particular, heavy rains of 50mm to 80mm are anticipated in the north western regions on 22nd and 23rd November 2019. The north eastern parts of the country which have remained dry since the beginning of the season are expected to receive light to moderate rains during the forecast week. The Juba and Shabelle Basins within Somalia and Ethiopia will also see an increase in rainfall activities, as more than 100mm of rainfall is foreseen in the upper reaches of the catchments inside Ethiopia. The central regions of Mudug and parts of Nugaal will remain mostly dry. River levels along the Shabelle remain high and are anticipated to remain so in the coming week given the current situation and foreseen rains. There remains a moderate risk of flooding along the river. Observed river levels along the Juba continued to drop and are currently within the normal at this time of the year. Given the forecast the levels will start to increase towards the end of the week with minimal risk of flooding along the Juba. Mild to moderate levels of flash floods are expected in low lying areas of Gedo, Bay, Bakool and northern regions in the coming week.

The Deyr 2019 rains have so far been average to above average in many parts of the country apart from Bari, Nuugal and Mudug regions that have experienced below-average rains. The seasonal rains are expected to continue during November with moderate to heavy intensity. During the last week, several places across the country recorded Light to moderate rains. A few places in the coastal areas of Bari and Nugal regions experienced moderate to heavy rains in the last 24Hours which led to flash floods and destruction of properties and death of livestock. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days is calling for moderate to heavy rains across the country as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. Lower Juba and Bari regions may receive little or no rains. Belet Weyne in Hiraan region has been at full bank level for the last 11 days leaving about 68% of the town underwater according to analysis from satellite images. Over the previous 24 hours, Bulo Burti reached the highest level in recent history. High levels and flooding in Belet Weyne and other areas along the Shabelle will be sustained in the next couple of days given the current situation and foreseen rains. There was a reduction of river levels along the Juba River with no flood risk over the last week following a decrease in rainfall activities.  Flash floods are expected in low lying areas of Nuugal, Mudug, Bay and Bakool in the coming week given the rainfall forecast.

The Deyr rains continued into the second month of the season with a significant reduction over the last two weeks. However, the last few days have seen light to moderate amounts of rainfall in scattered areas across the country. The good rains received so far have continued to replenish water sources further improving pasture growth and reducing water stress. There has been an improvement in livestock body conditions and milk production as well. Shabelle River: In Belet Weyne and surrounding areas, flood waters that invaded the town since the last week of October have now receded and the situation is getting back to normal notwithstanding the negative impacts left by the ravaging waters. River levels at a Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti and Jowhar as the well as the lower reaches of the river have been dropping gradually over the last week and are still above normal for this time of the year. The river levels are expected to remain high along the entire channel of Shabelle as more rains are foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands and inside Somalia. Moderate risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle in the coming week. Satellite image analysis indicate that more than 128,066 Hectares of land along the Shabelle of which more than 50% is agricultural land (80,041 ha) was inundated during the month of October and November. Juba River: Along Juba River the levels dropped gradually over the last two weeks consequently reducing the flood impacts. Riverine floods along the Juba during the month of October and early November left a total of 79,229 Hectares of land inundated of which 29, 748 Hectares is agricultural land. This has damaged farmland and crops leading to livelihood losses. The levels are expected to fluctuate in the coming week with a Moderate risk of flooding towards the end of the week. In Bay and Bakool regions: There was a reduction of rainfall activities in these regions over the previous weeks, which improved the situation in terms of flooding. Puntland, Somaliland and Central regions: soma parts of Somaliland continued to record rains in the month of November while there were minimal rainfall activities in Puntland. The rainfall forecast for the coming week shows continuing rainfall activities in many parts of Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. As a result, given the already saturated soil moisture there is a moderate risk of flooding along the two rivers. Flash floods will also be experienced in low-lying areas of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed Bakool, Bay and coastal areas of Galgaduud and Mudug regions. No significant amount of rains area foreseen in Nuugal, Bari and Mudug regions. Hot and dry conditions are expected to persist in the coming week calling a cause for concern due to the prolonged dry period which may lead to depletion of water resources and pasture in the coming weeks.

The last 24 hours saw moderate to heavy rains in parts of Juba and Shabelle basins. Belet Weyne in Hiraan recorded 39mm, which has only made it worse for the town currently under water. Wanle Weyne in Lower Shabelle recorded 38mm. A few places in Nugaal and Mudug areas also received light rains. Wet conditions are expected to persist in the coming weeks. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days is calling for moderate to heavy rains across the country as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. In particular heavy rains of more than 100mm are expected in Hiraan, Bay and Bakool regions which are already saturated following weeks of continued heavy rains. Lower Juba and Bari regions may receive little or no rains. Shabelle River at Belet Weyne in Hiraan region has been at full bank level for the last 12 days leaving about 68% of the town underwater according to analysis from satellite images. Today, Bulo Burti in Hiraan Region is only 0.23m away from the bank full level pausing an immediate threat of overbank spillage and possible flooding of the town in the next few days. High levels and flooding in Belet Weyne and other areas along the Shabelle will be sustained in the next couple of days given the current situation and foreseen rains. Observed river levels along the Juba continued to drop in the last 24 hours with no risk of flooding. Given the rainfall forecast and antecedent soil moisture, flash floods are expected in low lying areas of Nuugal, Mudug, Bay and Bakool Regions in the coming week.