Light rainfall is expected over most parts of Somalia with moderate rains over isolated areas in northeastern and dry conditions over southwestern parts of the country during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over Bari region particularly Iskushuban district, southern parts of Calulla district, eastern parts of Qandala district and southern parts of Bandarbeyle district. Moderate rains are also expected in isolated areas in the northwestern part of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region and over the areas on the border between Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region. In the central regions, rains of similar amounts are expected over Cadale district in Middle Shabelle region, southern parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region, Qoryooley district and eastern parts of Kurtunwaarey and Baarawe districts in Lower Shabelle region. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected over several areas in the Country with a tendency towards moderate over eastern parts of Bari region, northern parts of Sanaag region, Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region, Ceel District in Galgaduud region, Cadale and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region, and several areas in Lower Shabelle region. Light rains are also expected over Central BeletWeyne district and Jalalaqsi district in Hiraan region. Dry conditions are expected in the southwestern parts of the country particularly over Gedo, Bakool and some parts of Hiraan regions including areas at their border with Bay region. Dry conditions are also likely in Mudug region particularly over Galdogob district, Gaalkacyo district and its border with Hobyo district. In Awdal region, dry conditions are expected over the northern parts of Zeylac and Lughaye districts. Similar conditions are likely over eastern part of Berbera in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Areas in the coastal strip of Bossaso, Qandala and Calulla districts in Bari region area also likely to remain dry. Moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C are expected over several areas in the southern and northeastern parts of the country. Temperatures as low as 20°C are likely over some areas in the southern parts of Aw Woqooyi Galbeed regions, Sheikh district in northern Togdheer region and Ceerigaabo in Sanaag region and northern parts of Qandala district in Bari region. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°C are expected in in Hiraan, Galgaduud, mudug, Nugaal, and Sool regions, southern and eastern parts of Bari region, and northern parts of both Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions. Similar temperatures copnditions are also likely over Dollow and Luuq districts in Gedo region. Temperatures as high as 36°C are likely over eastern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region.

For close to two weeks, Belet Weyne town and its surrounding areas have witnessed widespread and devastating floods occasioned by the Shabelle River bursting its banks on the 9th May 2023. The river has remained at a bankful height of 8.30 meters up to the current date of May 22nd. The widespread flooding has resulted to property damage, and population displacement. Over the last two days, the flood water has begun slowly receding from Belet Weyne town and the surrounding areas back into the river, and progressively flow downstream. Subsequently, the river level at Bulo Burte has steadily risen, with today’s (22nd May) level just 13 cm below the high flood risk level. The river level at Jowhar has stagnated below moderate flood risk level (5.0 m) since the beginning of the Gu rain season. Today’s level is 3.75 m and is exactly equal to its normal mark in this season. Although the loss of flood water through overbank spillage between Belet Weyne and Bulo Burte explains the delay in Jowhar river level rise, it is expected that the high river levels at Bulo Burte will be transmitted to Jowhar and eventually to Balcad within the coming week. No rains have been reported in the last week over South Central Somalia including the entire stretch of Shabelle River from Belet Weyne to Balcad. Although light rains to dry conditions are predicted over the coming week, the steady rise in river levels at Bulo Burte poses a HIGH-RISK OF FLOODING in the town and the adjacent areas. A MODERATE RISK OF FLOODING is foreseen in Jowhar and the adjacent areas over the same period. Given the expected loss of water to overbank spillage and breakages along the Shabelle river channel, the risk of flooding reduces as the waters flow downstream to Balcad. Therefore, as the flood water recedes back to the river, residents of Belet Weyne are urged to beware of crocodiles that could have escaped the river on to the floodplains. They should also beware of the risks of drowning. As the residents prepare to relocate back to the previously flooded areas, housing structures need to be assessed for safety. In order to prevent water borne diseases, proper hygiene including disinfection measures such as chlorination of water sources should be adopted. The residents of Bulo Burte should prepare for potential evacuation by identifying safe routes to high grounds and gathering essential items, inform family, friends, and neighbors about the flood warning, secure property and consider assembling an emergency kit with necessary supplies. Residents are also strongly recommended to stay informed through regular bulletin updates at specified times, monitor thorough radio, television and internet for flood warnings. Any open or weak river embankments within Jowhar should be closed and reinforced.

According to the weekly forecast, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over several areas in central and northwestern parts of Somalia with light rains over southern and northeastern parts during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of more than 150 mm is likely to be observed over Sablaale and Baraawe districts in Lower Shabelle Region; western parts of Ceel Buur district and central parts of Dhuusamarreeb district in Galgaduud Region; Xarardheere district, northern parts of Hobyo district, eastern parts of Gaalkacyo district and western parts of Jariiban district in Mudug region. Rains of similar amounts are also predicted over Sheikh district in the northern part of Togdheer region and the northern border between Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed. Very heavy rains which may exceed 200 mm are expected over the northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over several areas in Mudug and Galgaduud regions; central parts of Hiraan region, the border between Afmadow, Kismaayo and Jamaame districts in Lower Juba region; Jilib district in Middle Juba region; coastal areas of Lower Shabelle region, the central areas of Adan Yabaal district and the border between Balcad and Cadale districts in Middle Shabelle region. Rainfall of similar amounts is likely over the northern part of Togdheer region; the northern border between Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed; southern parts of Awdal region; western parts of Ceel Afweyn and northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is predicted over several areas in Nugaal region, central and northern parts of Awdal region, central and southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, northern and southern parts of Togdheer region, central and western parts of Sanaag region, central and northern parts of Sool region, and some areas in the central parts of Bari region. Comparatively moderate rainfall is also expected over Galdogob district, western parts of Gaalkacyo district, northern parts of Jariiban district and western parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region, eastern parts of Galgaduud region, central and northern parts of Hiraan region, Balcad , Cadale and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region, near-coastal parts of the entire Lower Shabelle region, Buáale district in Middle Juba and Kismaayo, Jilib and eastern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several areas in Bari region, eastern parts of Sanaag region, northern parts of both Woqooyi and Awdal regions, Bay region, central and eastern parts of Bakool region, southwestern parts of Hiraan region and its entire border with Middle Shabelle region, Wanla Weyn in Lower Shabelle region. In the south, similar light rains are expected over western Afmadow in Lower Juba, Saakow in Middle Juba region, northern Bardheere in Gedo region. Dry conditions are expected in the southwestern parts of the country particularly Gedo region, Waajid, Ran Dhuure, western parts of Ceel Barde and southern parts of Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region, and the coastal areas of Bari region. Moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C are expected over several areas in the southern and northern parts of the country. Temperatures as low as 20°C are likely over some areas in the southern parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions, Sheikh district in northern Togdheer region and Ceerigaabo in Sanaag region. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°C are expected in the central regions and some parts in the south and northern parts of the country.

The weekly outlook shows that most parts of the country are expected to receive less than 50 mm of cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spread of the cumulative rainfall amounts are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm expected over isolated areas in the north-western and southern parts of the country. The areas in the northwestern part of the country are: northern Zeylac district, central Baki district and northwestern Hargeisa district. Areas in the southern parts of the country are: Belet Xaawo, Ceel Waaq districts, southwestern parts of Baardheere district, northern Jilib district and southern Buáale district, southeastern Afmadow district central parts of Kismayo and Badhaadhe districts. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several parts of Awdal, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle and Hiraan regions. Rains of similar intensity are expected over central and northern Woqqoyi Galbeed, northern Togdheer region, northern border between Sanaag and Bari regions, central and western Galgaduud region, eastern Bakool region, southern Bay region, and the coastal strip of Mudug region. Dry conditions are expected in central parts of the country including most areas in Togdheer, Sool, Sannag, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Similar conditions are expected over northern and southern parts of Galgaduud region, central areas of Hiraan region, western Bakool region, and northern Gedo region, central and northern Bay region. Moderate temperatures of between 20°C and 32°Care expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20°C are expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the southern Awdal-Woqooyi Galbeed regional border, northwestern Togdheer region, and isolated areas in northern Sanaag and Bari regions.

According to the weekly forecast, several areas in central and southern Somalia are expected to receive moderate rainfall of over 50 mm of cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts are as follows: Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected in some parts of southern Somalia including Gedo, Lower Juba, Upper Juba, Lower Shabelle and Bay regions. In the Gedo region, the areas include Ceel Waaq district, northern Baardheere, and the southern border between Garbahaarey and Luuq regions. In Middle Juba region, the areas include northern parts of Saakow district, central parts of Buáale district and the northern parts of Jilib district. Areas included in the Lower Juba region are southern and eastern parts of Afmadow district and central and northern parts of Kismayo district. Areas in western part of Diinsoor district and southern parts of Buur Hakaba in Bay region and western parts of Sablaale in Lower Shabelle region, and coastal parts of Hobyo and Xarardheere districts in Muduug region are also likely to observe rains of similar amounts. Very heavy rainfall of above 150 mm is likely in isolated areas in southern Somalia and particularly over central parts of Gedo region Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over several areas in central and southern Somalia including; Gedo, Lower Juba, Upper Juba, Lower Shabelle and Bay regions, southern and eastern parts of Hiraan region, southern parts of Lower Shabelle region, and northern parts of Awdal region. Some areas in Bakool region and Galgaduud region, coastal areas in Muduug region, Sanaag region and northern parts of Bari region are also forecast to receive similar amounts of rainfall. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several parts of Bakool, Hiraan region, Middle Juba and Galgaduud, Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed regions. Similar rains are expected over central western parts of Sanaag region, northern parts of Togdheer region, northwestern parts of Sool region, and northwestern part of Bari region. Dry conditions are expected in several areas of the central and northern Somalia including non-coastal areas of Muduug, Nugaal, Bari and Sool regions. Similar dry conditions are forecast over several areas in central and eastern parts of Sanaag region, central and southern parts of Togdheer region, and some areas in the southwestern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region. Moderate temperatures of between 20°C and 32°C are expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20°C are expected over very isolated areas in northern Sanaag and Bari regions.

According to the weekly forecast, several areas in southern Somalia are expected to observe moderate (above 50 mm) to heavy (above 100 mm) cumulative rainfall during the forecast period. The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected in some areas of southern Somalia including Ceel Waaq district and eastern parts of Bardheere district in Gedo region, eastern parts of Diinsoor district in Bay region, northern parts of Saakow district, southern parts of Buáale district and northern parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, and western parts of Jamaame district, southeastern parts of Afmadow district, north parts of Kismaayo and most parts of Badhaadhe district in Lower Juba region. Very heavy isolated rainfall of above 150 mm is likely in some of the above areas particularly over the eastern parts of Bardheere district in Gedo region and southeastern parts of Bu’aale district in Middle Juba region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over Middle Juba region, several areas in central and southern Gedo, eastern, southern and western Lower Juba region, central and western parts of Bay region, western and eastern coastal parts of Lower Shabelle region, and southwestern parts of Middle Shabelle region. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, Belet Xaawo, Garbahaarey, Luuq and Dollow districts in Gedo region, several parts of Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, and Bay regions, Rab Dhuure and Waajid districts, western parts of Xudur district and southern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region, Bulo Burti district in Hiraan region, southern parts of Ceel Buur district, northern parts of Ceel Dheer district and the coastal strips of Galgaduud region and southern Mudug region. Similar moderate rains are also expected over northern parts of Hargeisa district Woqooyi Galbeed region, Sheikh district and northern parts of Owdweyne and Burco districts in Togdheer region. Dry conditions are expected in central and northern parts of the country including Bari, Nugaal and Sool regions, several areas in Awdal, Sanaag, central and southern parts of Togdheer region, northern and southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, and vast non-coastal parts of Mudug region. Moderate temperatures of between 24 oC and 28 oC are expected in north and eastern parts of the country with cold conditions (temperatures less than 20 oC) likely very isolated areas in northern Sanaag and Bari regions. Moderate temperatures of between 28 ℃ and 32 ℃ are expected over central and southern Somalia.

According to the weekly forecast, several areas in southern, central and northwestern parts of Somalia are expected to observe heavy (above 100 mm) to very heavy (above 150 mm) cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of more than 150 mm is expected over several areas in the central part of Lower Shabelle region including Kurtunwaarey, Qoryooley and Afgooye districts. Similarly heavy rainfall is likely over several areas in the southern parts of Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed. Very heavy rainfall is also expected over isolated areas in northeastern parts of Ceel Barde district in Bakool region, southern parts of Bulo Burti district in Hiraan region, southern border between Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigabo districts in Sanaag region, Sheikh district in Togdheer region, and Baki district in Awdal region. The rains over the border between Gebiley and Hargeisa may actually exceed 200 mm. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected in several areas of central Somalia including the entire Lower Shabelle region, northeastern parts of Baardheere district and isolated areas in Dollow and Luuq districts in Gedo region, Buur Hakaba district in Bay region, Hudur and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region, eastern parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, western parts of all Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region, and southern parts of Cabudwaaq and Dhuusamarreeb districts in Galgaduud region. Similarly heavy rainfall is likely over southern parts of Ceerigaabo district and southern and western parts of Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region, entire Caynabo district in Sool region, central parts of both Owdweyne and Burco district in Togdheer region, southern parts of Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed, Baki, Borama and Lughaye districts in Awdal region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over several areas in Awdal region, Woqooyi Galbeed region, Togdheer region, western and central parts of Sanaag and Sool regions. Rainfall of equal amount is likely over Badhaadhe, Kismaayo and Jamaame districts and eastern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, Saakow district, western parts of Jilib district and eastern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region, Dollow and Luuq districts and northeastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region, Diinsoor, Qansax Dheere and Baydhaba districts in Bay region, Middle Shabelle region. Comparable rainfall is expected over Waajid and Rab Dhuure districts and western parts of Ceel Barde district in Bakool region, eastern parts of all Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region, Cabudwaaq and Cadaado districts, western parts of Dhuusamarreeb district and southern parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region and Galdogob district in mudug region. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several areas in Mudug and Nugaal region, western parts of Bari region and eastern parts of both Sanaag and Sool regions. Dry conditions are expected in northern and eastern parts of Bari region including the coastal areas in Bandarbeyla, Iskushuban, Caluula, Qandala and Bossaso districts. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°Care expected in southern and central parts of the country, and moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C in the northern parts

Most parts of the country are expected to receive less than 50 mm of cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spread of the cumulative rainfall amounts are as follows: Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several parts of Lower and Middle Juba, Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Lower and Middle Shabele, Sanaag, and Togdheer regions, southern and central parts of Hiraan region, central areas of Galgaduud region, and isolated areas in northern Bari region, central and western parts of Sool region. Moderate rains of between 50 mm and 100 mm is predicted over isolated areas in the north-western parts of the country. Such rains are expected in the southern parts of Awdal, central and southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, localized areas in western and northern parts of Sanaag region, western parts of Gedo region and southwestern parts of Lower Juba region. Heavy rains of between 100 mm and 150 mm are likely over Isolated pockets in Baki and Borama districts in Awdal region, and southern parts of Gebiley in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Dry conditions are expected in central parts of the country including most areas in Nugaal and Mudug regions, northern areas of Hiraan and Galgaduud regions, southern areas of Bari region and eastern areas of Sool region. Moderate temperatures of between 20 °C and 32 °C are expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20 °C are expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sanaag and Bari regions.

FAO-SWALIM, the Somalia Water and Land Information Management, has completed an analysis and mapping project of river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers. The project utilized Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to identify and classify the breakages into four categories: open, canal flooding, overflow, and closed with sandbags. The open breakages are those that are currently open and were observed on the latest VHR image available. The observations reported refer to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. The map identified a total of 62 open breakage points, 36 on the Shabelle River and 26 on the Juba River, which require immediate attention. In addition, 15 overflow points and 39 canal flooding points were identified during this season. The Horn of Africa region has experienced five consecutive poor rainy seasons, resulting in severe hydrological drought conditions in Somalia and neighboring countries. The Juba and Shabelle rivers, which have their headwaters in the Ethiopian highlands, have remained near or below the long-term average since the beginning of 2023, negatively impacting agriculture production, domestic and livestock water use for the riverine communities. However, the low river levels provide an opportunity to repair the river breakages and weak embankments before the next rainy season. It is important to note that the methodology used in this analysis, is biased towards remote sensing interpretation, with limited "ground truthing" due to difficulties in accessing the areas. Open breakages may have been omitted or classified as potential in some cases where satellite images were unavailable or not clear due to heavy cloud cover or dense vegetation.

Somalia’s Gu (April-May-June) is the main wet season in the country, and is critical in supporting agricultural activities and replenishing water and pasture. The season begins as early as the second half of March, at the tail end of the Jilal Season, and the rains intensify in April with the onset progressing north eastwards almost mimicking the south-north progression of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that follows the overhead sun. Gu rainfall cessation occurs in June in most parts of the country, with the north- eastern coastline receiving the least amount of rainfall during this season. According to the recently released Seasonal Climate Forecast issued by IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), there is a 50% likelihood that below normal rainfall (drier than normal conditions) will be observed over most parts of Somalia as is evidenced by the yellow coloration shown in Map 1. Over the northern parts of Middle Shabelle there is greater likelihood (60%) of observing such dry conditions. In the north eastern part of the country, southern Togdheer and Lower Juba there are equal probabilities of below normal, normal and above normal rains over most areas (denoted by white coloration). The above rainfall conditions will be accompanied by warmer than normal surface temperatures (55% likelihood) over much of the country, with increased chance of up to 70% over the northern areas. Drought analysis using SPI have shown moderate multi- season drought conditions in the southwestern Somalia (Gedo and Juba regions) and severe conditions over Sanaag region. Seasonal climate scientists have observed that the poor forecast 2023 Gu rains are comparable to the forecast conditions of the years 2017 and 2021. However, due to the poor predictability of the Gu rain season, the forecast is expected to have high spatial variability. Further, the rainfall forecasts categories vary over regions; 170 mm and 195 mm thresholds are applicable over Somalia. It is worth noting that this forecast is designed for a regional audience that addresses the rainfall totals summed over the three-month period from March to May 2023.