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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 11-11-2015
Light to moderate rains spread across many southern and central parts of Somalia are expected in the next three days. The northern parts of the country including Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag are expected to receive moderate rains over the same period. The upper catchment of the Shabelle River in Ethiopia will receive high rains as well, which translates to increase in river levels later in the week.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Flood Watch Bulletin 24-11-2015
During the week that ended on 23rd November 2015, there was a reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands compared to the previous week. However, a few stations recorded moderate rains. River levels are currently within normal in most sections of the two river with the exception of Jowhar areas.
Given the rainfall forecast, the current river levels, existing open river banks and weak river embankments, there remains a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. The flood risk level for Juba remains moderate. Flash floods within the Juba basin may also be expected especially the areas bordering Kenya where heavy rains are foreseen during the coming week.
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Flood watch bulletin
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 21-10-2015
The forecast for the next three days points towards increased rains in the Shabelle basin inside Somalia, the Ethiopian highlands as well as the central parts of the country . The North western parts may also record moderate rains while the lower parts of Juba and north eastern parts may receive light rains within the same period.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 07-10-2015
The Deyr 2015 rains have started in some parts of Somalia. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands, Lower Juba region and north eastern parts of Somalia are expected to receive light to moderate rains within the next three days. Other parts of Somalia and the lower parts of the Ethiopian highland will receive little or no rains during the same period.
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 28-10-2015
Heavy rains are expected to continue in the Ethiopian highlands and most parts of Somalia except Awdal, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Toghdheer, Bay and Lower Shabelle regions are expected to receive the highest amounts which may lead to flash floods and river floods in respective areas.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Flood Watch Bulletin 21-10-2015
The Deyr 2015 rainy season started well in many parts of Somalia and has been increasing in space and intensity over the past few days within the Juba and Shabelle river basins both in Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands.
River levels in the upstream stations along the Juba and Shabelle (Luuq and Belet Weyne respectively) continued to increase over the last week. The levels in the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River are currently high.
Given the current river levels and the current rainfall forecast (which indicates heavy rains within the Shabelle basin both in Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands; moderate rains expected in the Juba basin inside Somalia; heavy rains in the highlands and the coastal areas of Banadir, Middle Shabelle and Galgaduud), there is a moderate flood risk level along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle while there is no foreseen risk of flooding along the Juba in the coming week.
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Flood watch bulletin
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 12-10-2015
Scattered light to moderate rains are expected across the Juba and Shabelle river basins inside Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands. The rains extend to the central parts of the country, Nugaal and Sool Regions, while in the extreme north regions there will be minimal rainfall activity in the coming three days.
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 30-10-2015
Moderate to heavy rains are expected to continue in the Ethiopian highlands and most parts of Somalia except Awdal, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Flash flood may be experienced in a few places within Bay, Bakool and Gedo regions following the foreseen heavy rains in the area.
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 22-10-2015
The last 24 hours have seen heavy rains in parts of Togdheer, Hiraaan and Middle Shabelle regions leading to flash floods in the affected areas. During the next three days, rains are expected to continue in the Shabelle basin inside Somalia, the Ethiopian highlands, lower parts of Sool and Togdheer regions as well as the central parts of the country . The lower parts of Juba and north eastern parts may receive light rains within the same period.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 14-10-2015
The rainfall forecast for the next three days points towards increased rains in most areas of Central Somalia. In the northern and southern parts of the country light rains are expected; while in the Ethiopian highlands there will be moderate rains in the same period.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 02-11-2015
There will be a reduction of rainfall activities in most parts of Somalia in the coming three days. However, a tropical storm named CHAPALA is expected to make a land fall in Yemen. The passage of this tropical storm is expected to cause strong winds in parts of Bari and Sanaag regions which may also lead to heavy rains in the area during the forecast period. Areas to watch are Caluula, Qandala, Bossaso and Laasqoray.
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Shabelle River Flood Alert 23-10-2015
Within the last few days, heavy rains have been experienced in some parts of the Shabelle River basin both in Somalia and in the Ethiopian Highlands. Flash floods have been reported in some areas including Mataban, Mahadey Weyne, Jowhar and Mogadishu. Following the heavy rains, the river levels have increased drastically in the middle reaches of the river. Today’s river level in Jowhar is 5.20m which has surpassed the moderate flood risk level.
The rainfall forecast for the next seven days (24th to 30th October, 2015) is pointing towards heavy rains within the Ethiopian highlands especially in the headwaters of the Shabelle basin as seen in the Map. Given the rainfall forecast, observed river levels along the Shabelle River are expected to continue rising further especially in downstream areas thus endangering vulnerable communities.
There is therefore a high risk of flooding in the coming few days in the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle river given the current situation and the foreseen rains. Areas to watch include;
Mahadey Weyne town and its environs;
Jowhar town and its environs; where the river level is currently at full crest,
Other riverine towns in the lower Shabelle region such as Balcaad and Kurtunwaarey
The foreseen heavy rains are also likely to cause flash floods in low lying areas of the central parts of the country.
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 16-10-2015
The Deyr rains in Somalia continue to spread both in space and intensity. The forecast for the next three days points towards increased rains in most parts of Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands.
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 01-10-2015
The Deyr 2015 rains have started in some parts of Somalia. In the coming three days, most parts of the country will continue to receive light to moderate rains. Moderate to heavy rains are foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands during in the coming three days.
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Rainfall Forecast
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Somalia Dekadal Rainfall Bulletin - Dekad 30 2015
During the third dekad of October, (21st – 31st October 2015), wet conditions persisted in southern and central parts of the country with some parts of these regions experiencing flash floods. The north western parts remained dry throughout the month of October. Figure (1) shows the rainfall observational network and monthly rainfall distribution for selected stations across the country. The table below is a brief summary of the rainfall situation by region for this dekad. This update will be issued every 10-days throughout the Gu rainy season.
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Dekadal Rainfall Update
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 26-10-2015
Heavy rains are expected to continue in the Ethiopian highlands, Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud and Mudug regions in the coming three days. Other areas that may record moderate rains include parts of Lower Shabelle, Bakool and Bay regions. The northern pats of the country and the Juba valley may record little or no rains during the same period.
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 19-10-2015
The forecast for the next three days points towards increased rains in most parts of Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands. However, light rains are forecasted for Lower Juba and the Bari regions during the same period.
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SWALIM Update Issue 9
We are pleased to share Issue 9 of our newsletter “SWALIM Update” for the period May 2015 - August 2015.
This issue of the newsletter provides updates on SWALIM water and land information management activities such as: What El Nino Means for Somalia, Empowering Women in Somalia with Information Management Skills, SWALIM Information Days in Somaliland and Puntland, Using Remote Sensing for Monitoring, Hydrogeology Study in Ceel Waaq District, Study on Flood and Irrigation Control Systems in Middle Shabelle and Data Centres in Mogadishu.
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Newsletter
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 03-11-2015
Light rains spread across many southern and central parts of Somalia are expected in the next three days. The northern parts of the country are expected to receive moderate rains over the same period, with few pockets in Togdheer and Bari regions experiencing high rainfall of up to 100mm which can lead to flash floods. The upper catchment of the Shabelle River in Ethiopia will receive high rains as well, which translates to increase in river levels later in the week.
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Flood Watch Bulletin 27-10-2015
The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates heavy rains within the two basins both inside Somalia and Ethiopian highlands. Heavy rains are also expected in Banadir, Galgaduud, Mudug and parts of Nugaal, sool, Sanaag and Toghdheer regions with a possibility of flash floods in these areas.
River levels in the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River are currently at full crest in some sections of the river.
Given the rainfall forecast and the current river levels, there is a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. A Moderate risk of flooding is foreseen in the lower reaches of Juba River especially in locations where there exists open river breakages.
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W-26 Hydrogeological Study in Ceel Waaq District, Gedo Region, Somalia
The study demonstrates the validity of using Landsat imagery to delineate fracture zones, hence areas of relatively higher groundwater potential. Recharge water is channeled along regional fractures that enhance hydraulic connectivity hence higher fluxes along these lineaments. The identification of the nearest lineaments to each village was done with the help of automatically generated lineaments and manual tracing on satellite imagery, to select potential geophysical survey sites within a 2-kilometer radius of each village.
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Technical report
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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 30-09-2015
The Deyr 2015 rains have started in some parts of Somalia. In the coming three days, most parts of central regions are expected to receive rainfall totals of up to 20mm while the rest of the country will receive either little or no rains during the same period.
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Rainfall Forecast
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The El nino phenomenon Infograph
An El Niño state occurs when the central and eastern equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are substantially higher than usual. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) defines an El Niño event when the NIÑO 3.4 area has sea-surface temperatures at least 0.5 ºC higher than normal for five consecutive three-month-averaged periods. During the last 25 years, Somalia has been affected by six moderate-to-strong El Niño events: 1991-2, 1994-5, 1997-8, 2002-3, 2006-7, and 2009-10 in which floods of different magnitudes were reported. The 1997/98 was the strongest followed by that of 2006.
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Infograph
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SWALIM
Flood Preparedness Information Leaflet - Somali Version
Fatahaaduhu waxay dhici karaan wakhti kaste iyo meel kaste.Waxayna u dhaci karaan si deg deg ah.Marka haddii aad ku nooshahay meel biyo u dhow ama meel kalaba, waa in aad u diyaargarowdaa.Halkan waxa ku jira waxyaabo muuhiim ah si aad ugu diyaargaroobi kartid.
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Brochure
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SWALIM
Deyr 2015 Rainfall Outlook
The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) has confirmed that El Nino conditions have intensified and will affect the region during the September to December rainy season. The El Nino event is likely to lead to a wetter than normal Deyr season in parts of the country.
This is a probabilistic forecast designed for a regional audience that addresses the cumulative rainfall forecast over the four‐month period from (September to December 2015). The rainfall pattern may vary from place to place with the areas expected to receive high rains experiencing periods of dry spells and areas expected to receive low rains experiencing heavy storms.
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Rainfall Outlook
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SWALIM
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