Moderate Risk of Flooding Along Juba River Particularly at Luuq and Bardheere Heavy rains received over Luuq (80.5 mm), and moderate rains (26.2 mm) observed over Dollow on 20th October 2023, coupled with moderate rains across the Ethiopian border have resulted to a sharp rise in river level at Luuq from 3.84 m on 18th to 5.6 m and at Dollow from 4.26 m on 19th to 4.78 m today. Added to previous light rains (14.1 mm) observed on 19th October at Luuq, moderate flood risk levels have been surpassed by 0.22 m and 0.1 m at Dollow and and Luuq, respectively. These localized rains also led to flashfloods affecting IDP camp at Luuq. Moderate rains received over Beletweyne (38.5 mm) on 20th October 2023, and possibly more intense rains over the surrounding areas, coupled with moderate rains across the Ethiopian border have led to a noticeable rise in river level at Beletweyne from 4.95 m on 19th to 5.15 m today (20th October 2023). The rainfall forecast for the next three days indicates moderate to heavy rain (50 – 150 mm) within the Somali-Ethiopia border particularly over upper parts of Gedo region, central parts of Bakool region and many parts of Hiraan region. Although only light rains (4 mm) have been observed at Bardheere today (20th October), the forecast moderate rains in the 24 hours and coming days over upper parts of Gedo region, is likely to lead to further rise in the river levels with moderate risk of flooding along the entire Juba River stretch with the flood wave expected at Bardhere within 2 days. This is therefore an alert to trigger both riverine and flash floods anticipatory actions and to caution communities living along the Juba riverine areas particularly Luuq and Bardheere districts to be vigilant and heed to anticipatory measures as the river levels keep rising. Although the risk of flooding along Shabelle River remains low today, the forecast moderate to heavy rains over Hiraan will lead to increase in river levels. If the heavy rains over Hiraan materialize, it may result in incidences of flash floods today and whose resultant run off and flood wave is expected to flow downstream towards Bulo Burte Burte and Jalalaqsi in the coming days. Additionally, the large volumes of water that was sighted at Limey district in Ethiopia which forms part of the upper catchment of Shabelle river, is likely to lead to a rise in water level at Beletweyne in two to three weeks.

Somalia grapples with the looming impacts of an impending El Niño, exacerbating the ongoing climate change challenges. Recurrent riverine and flash floods, particularly in urban centers are of significant concern. Urgent action is needed to prepare for and mitigate the forthcoming El Niño floods, aiming to safeguard lives and mitigate economic losses. Key to this strategy is proactive flood management, involving timely evacuations to higher ground. Identifying suitable elevated areas serves a dual purpose, ensuring safety and facilitating aid delivery. In this regard a rigorous GIS & RS methodology by SWALIM considered nine crucial factors, such as historical flood extent, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, drainage density, strategic boreholes, settlements, land cover, and roads, to isolate higher grounds suitable for evacuation. The resulting maps show safe areas for evacuation in case of flooding, while exercising discretion considering factors like proximity to schools, healthcare facilities, pest prevalence and any other unforeseen factors.

Shabelle River In the last 24 hours, heavy rainfall has been received and recorded (21st October 2023) at Beletweyne (88.2 mm), Mataban (40.0 mm), Bulo Burte (51.0 mm), Mahaday Weyne (20.0 mm), Jalalaqsi (87.0 mm), Jowhar (18.0 mm) and Balcad (23.0 mm). Compared to yesterdays’ measurements, the levels have increased by 1.29 m at Beletweyne, and by 0.12 m at Bulo Burte, while it remained stable at Jowhar. These localized rains also led to flash floods in Beletweyne which affected population, assets, and livestock particularly at the bridge near the ex-livestock market and in Hawo Taako and Kooshin villages. The IDPs are reported to have been safely evacuated to Ceel Jaale. Light rainfall is predicted over the Shabelle catchment within the country in the next 24 hours increasing to moderate cumulative amounts in the coming seven (7) days. Although light rain is forecast over the Shabelle river basin in the Ethiopian highlands today, it is expected to increase to between moderate and heavy rains in the coming seven (7) days. The runoff from previous heavy and forecast light localized rains onto and from seasonal wadis within Hiraan region, together with moderate to heavy rains over the river basin in the Ethiopian highlands, will keep the water levels along Shabelle River rising in the coming seven (7) days. This is therefore an alert to trigger both riverine and flash floods anticipatory actions and to caution communities living at vulnerable areas in Hiraan to be vigilant as the flash flood water stagnates over the saturated surfaces in Beletwyne and the water levels along Shabelle River keep rising. Juba River In the last 24 hours, moderate rainfall has been received and recorded (21st October 2023) at Bardheere (15.0 mm) and Luuq (2.5 mm) with dry conditions over Dollow and Bualle. Compared to yesterdays’ measurements, the levels have increased by 0.5 m at Luuq, increased by 1.04 m at Bardheere, decreased by 0.24 m at Dollow and decreased by 0.17 m at Bualle. The flash floods due to previous localized rains at Luuq have subsided as the water run off to the seasonal wadis and into the Juba River. Light rainfall is predicted over the Juba catchment within the country in the next 24 hours increasing to moderate cumulative amounts in the coming seven (7) days. Although light rain is forecast over the Juba River basin in the Ethiopian highlands today, it is expected to increase to between moderate and heavy rains in the coming seven (7) days. The runoff from previous heavy and forecast light localized rains onto and from seasonal wadis within Gedo region, together with moderate to heavy rains over the river basin in the Ethiopian highlands, will keep the water levels along Juba River rising in the coming seven (7) days. This is therefore an alert to trigger both riverine and flash floods anticipatory actions and to caution communities living at vulnerable areas in Gedo particularly at Luuq and Bardheere to be vigilant as the flash flood water stagnates over the saturated surfaces in Luuq and the water levels along Juba River keep rising.

Moderate to heavy rains expected over inland parts of Central and North Eastern regions particularly around parts of Gedo, Bay, Bakool and Hiraan regions in South Somalia, parts of Mudug and Galgaduud regions in central Somalia and parts of Sool, Sanaag and Bari regions in Northern Somalia. Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is forecast over eastern parts of Bakool region particularly Tayeeglow; northern parts of Bay region, and several areas in Hiraan region particularly Belet Weyne, Mahas, and Mataban (Map 1). Rainfall of similar amounts is also likely over Jariiban district in Mudug, Xasbahale district in Nugaal, and Laas Caanon, Xudun, and Taleex districts in Sool. The rains are likely to spread outwards and intensify over Bay, Hiraan, Mudug and Nugaal and prevail beyond the forecast period to cumulative amounts above 100 mm. Other places forecast to receive comparable amounts of rainfall include Garadag, Dhahar, and Buran in Sanaag region, Qardho and Dangoroyo in Bari region, Buuhodle, Balidhiig, and Warabeye in Togdheer region. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is anticipated across several areas in Somalia. These include Burao, Beer, and Xaaji Saalax in Togheer region; Caynabo, Waridaad, and Yagori in Sool region; Erigavo and El Afweyne in Sanaag region; Ufayn, Ballidhig, and Bandar Beyla districts in Bari region; Garowe and Burtinle districts in Nugaal region; extensive parts of Mudug region; inland areas of Galgaduud region, particularly around Dhuusamarreb, Cadaado, and Cabudwaaq districts; Adan Yabaal and Jowhar in Middle Shabelle region; Wanla Weyne district in Lower Shabelle region; areas around Baidoa and Qansahdere in Bay region; areas around Luuq and Bardheere in Gedo region, as well as areas around Jamame, Kismaayo, and Badhaadhe districts in Lower Juba region. Dry conditions are likely over extensive areas in Awdal region, Woqooyi Galbeed region, western and northern parts of Togdheer region, as well as coastal and western parts of Sanaag region. Similar dry conditions are likely over extensive coastal and northwestern areas of Bari region, Galkayo district and the southern coastal parts of Mudug region, coastal parts of Galgaduud region, and coastal parts of both Lower and Middle Shabelle regions. Dry conditions are also anticipated over Banadir region, southern parts of Bay region, northern and western parts of Gedo region, as well as extensive areas of Lower and Middle Juba.

Significant fluctuations in water levels along the Juba River have been observed. The Juba River surpassed the high-risk thresholds by 10 cm at Luuq on 21st October before decreasing below moderate risk level as of today. Downstream at Bardheere Station, the water level rose from 8.00 m on 21st October to 9.00 m and crossing high-risk threshold (8.20 m) on 22nd October before receding back to 8.00 m today. The downstream flow of the flood wave has led to a 1.1 m rise in the water level at Bualle which currently poses no immediate threat of riverine flooding. Moderate to heavy rains (50 – 100 mm) are expected over the catchment of Juba River within Gedo region and near-border areas with Ethiopia between 23rd and 29th October. The rains over the upper catchment in Ethiopian Highlands may exceed 200 mm posing high risk of riverine flooding towards the end of the forecast period. There is a high risk of flash flooding due to potential localized heavy rains over western parts of Bakool, central parts of Gedo, and Saakow district in Middle Juba region. The water levels along the upper part of Shabelle River are on downward trend. On 21st October, the water level at Beletweyne (6.44 m) was only 6 cm below the moderate flood risk threshold. The levels have since dropped to 6.10 m today. The downstream flow of the flood wave has led to an increase in the water level at Bulo Burte from 4.95 m on 21st October to 5.28 m today. The water level at Jowhar station has also risen during the same time from 3.95 m to 4.28 m. These levels, at both stations, are still below riverine flood risk thresholds. Moderate rainfall (31.5 mm) led to flash floods that affected Badda Cas IDP camp interrupting livelihood activities. Moderate rainfall of about 50 mm is expected over Shabelle River catchment within Hiraan region and near-border areas with Ethiopia. Coupled with the heavy rains recorded one week ago, the heavy rains (more than 150 mm) forecast over the Shabelle River upper catchment in Ethiopian Highlands, are likely to pose high risk of riverine flooding at Beletweyne towards the end of October and beginning of November 2023.

Somalia grapples with the looming impacts of an impending El Niño, exacerbating the ongoing climate change challenges. Recurrent riverine and flash floods, particularly in urban centers are of significant concern. Urgent action is needed to prepare for and mitigate the forthcoming El Niño floods, aiming to safeguard lives and mitigate economic losses. Key to this strategy is proactive flood management, involving timely evacuations to higher ground. Identifying suitable elevated areas serves a dual purpose, ensuring safety and facilitating aid delivery. In this regard a rigorous GIS & RS methodology by SWALIM considered nine crucial factors, such as historical flood extent, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, drainage density, strategic boreholes, settlements, land cover, and roads, to isolate higher grounds suitable for evacuation. The resulting maps show safe areas for evacuation in case of flooding, while exercising discretion considering factors like proximity to schools, healthcare facilities, pest prevalence and any other unforeseen factors

Moderate to heavy rains are expected over Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Gedo, Bakool and Hiraan regions. Given the general light rainfall activity in the next 7-days, much of the rains are likely to be observed between 28th and 31st October 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall is described below: Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is forecast over several areas in the central parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region and the northern parts of Owdweyne district in Togdheer region, central parts of Gedo region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Saakow district in Middle Juba region. Heavy localized rains over these areas are likely to exceed 150 mm with possible cumulative amounts of about 200 mm in Wogooyi Galbeed, northern parts of Owdweyne district in Togdheer region and Bulo Burte in Hiraan region. Very heavy rainfall of above 200 mm is likely over the upper catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Ethiopian Highlands. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over Baki district in Awdal region, southern parts, Sheikh and Berbera districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region, northern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, Ceel Afwyene and Ceerigaabo districts in Sanaag region, and Bosasso district in Bari region. Moderate rains are also anticipated over several areas in both Gedo and Bakool regions, Saakow district in Middle Juba region, and Bur Hakaba district in Bay region. In the central parts of the country, rainfall of similar amounts is likely over Gaalkacyo in Mudug region, Cabuudwaaq in Galgaduud region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Cadale and Balcad districts in middle Shabelle region. Light rainfall of below 50 mm is likely over the rest of the country except for the following areas where dry conditions are expected to prevail: several areas in Bari, Lower Juba and Middle Shabelle regions, southern parts of Bay region, non-coastal parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region, non-coastal parts of Xarardheere district in Mudug region, Garowe district and coastal parts of Eyl district in Nugaal region, and Las Anod district. Temperature Forecast: Elevated temperatures between 35°C and 45°C are likely over Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, southern parts of Dinsor and Bur Hakaba districts in Bay region, Jowhar district in Middle Shabelle region, and Sheikh district in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Milder temperatures of between 20°C and 25°C are likely over the highlands in central parts of Sanaag region and northern parts of Bari regions. The rest of the country is expected to observe moderate temperatures between 25°C and 35°C.

Moderate to heavy rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is anticipated in the northern regions of the country, especially in proximity to Gebiley, Hargeisa, and areas adjacent to the Ethiopian border in Woqooyi Galbeed. Part of Togheer region is expected to experience similar high amount of rainfall especially Sheikh, Odweyn and Buuhoodle districts. In Sanaag region the highest amount of rainfall within the forecast period is expected in Ceel Afweyn and Erigavo districts. Areas around Qardho and Qandala in Bari, as well as Garowe and Burtinle in Nugaal, should anticipate a comparable pattern. Rainfall of comparable amounts is also likely to be observed in many parts of Sool region with chances of heavier storms localized over Xudun, Taleex, and Buuhodle districts. Other parts of the country expected to receive moderate to heavy rainfall include Galkayo and Hobyo in Mudug, Waajid in Bakool, Diinsor in Bay, and Bualle in Middle Juba Region. It is important to point out that rainfall of similarly moderate to heavy amounts is forecast over the Ethiopian highlands. Within Somalia, the heaviest precipitation is projected to occur during the initial three days of the forecast period especially in the northern parts of the country. Light to moderate rainfall is anticipated in Ceel Waaq and Luuq districts in Gedo, Baydhaba in Bay, extensive areas of Bakool, parts of Hiraan particularly Jalalaqsi and Bulo Burti districts, Ceel Buur and Cabudwaaq in Galgaduud, and most parts of western Muduug. The rest of the country is likely to experience scattered light showers throughout the week as per the forecast.

Given the recent evolution of warmer than average Sea- Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, most global climate models have confirmed the presence and persistence of El Niño conditions throughout the October - December 2023 season. Moreover, similar warming of ocean waters near the East African coastline, together with cooling down of the waters near the western Australian coastline, which technically defines a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is expected to lead to above normal rains over most parts of East Africa. Somalia’s Deyr (October - December) “short rains” season is associated with the somewhat-faster southward movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which dictates much of the country’s climate. According to ICPAC, the climate outlook for the “Deyr Short Rains’’ season indicates an exceptionally high likelihood (85 %) of enhanced rainfall over southern parts of the country encompassing the catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers where up to 10 consecutive rainy days are probable. Upstream of the river catchments across the Ethiopian border, 4 - 6 consecutive rainy days are expected with higher likelihood of cumulative amounts exceeding 150 mm. In terms of associated risks, the enhanced amounts, more so consecutive rainy days, over Juba and Shabelle River catchments within the country and across the Ethiopian border will likely lead to flooding as from the third week of October. However, the forecast dry conditions over the southern parts of Somalia where the two river catchments lie in the month of September offer some lead time for intervention measures to be put in place to mitigate the potential flood risks. The forecast dry conditions over the agricultural zones in the southern parts of the country in the month of September are also opportune for land preparation. The subsequent rains will likely lead to substantial recharge of water sources, replenished water catchment levels, and improved soil moisture conditions. These will create favorable conditions for grass regeneration, offering fodder for the livestock, and timely crop planting across the agro-pastoral livelihoods.

Somalia grapples with the looming impacts of an impending El Niño, exacerbating the ongoing climate change challenges. Recurrent riverine and flash floods, particularly in urban centers like Beletweyne and Jowhar, are of significant concern. Urgent action is needed to prepare for and mitigate the forthcoming El Niño floods, aiming to safeguard lives and mitigate economic losses. Key to this strategy is proactive flood management, involving timely evacuations to higher ground. Identifying suitable elevated areas serves a dual purpose, ensuring safety and facilitating aid delivery. In this regard a rigorous GIS & RS methodology by SWALIM considered nine crucial factors, such as historical flood extent, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, drainage density, strategic boreholes, settlements, land cover, and roads, to isolate higher grounds suitable for evacuation. The resulting maps show safe areas for evacuation in case of flooding, while exercising discretion considering factors like proximity to schools, healthcare facilities, pest prevalence and any other unforeseen factors.