This week marks the equinox; a period of the year during which the Earth’s axis is tilted neither towards the north nor south resulting in a “nearly” equal amount of daylight and darkness at all latitudes. The apparent position of the overhead Sun is expected to be generally over the celestial equator, which cuts through the country over Lower Juba region from Alabakuus in Jamaame district to Jana Cabdalle in Afmadow district, today 20th March 2024. Therefore, today and for several days afterwards, the length of day will range from about 12 hours and six and one-half minutes at the equator and the surrounding areas over Lower Juba region. Based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry weather conditions are expected throughout the country particularly between 20th and 22nd March 2024. The weekly forecast indicates likelihood of moderate rains over the Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed and Lower Juba regions in between 22nd and 26th March 2024 (Figure 1). The cloudiness and rains in the northern parts of the country are likely to be mediated by the north easterly winds ascending the east-west oriented elevations. While patches of clouds and isolated rains are likely over the elevated areas in Sanaag and Bari, the intensity of the rains over Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed on the windward sides of the Harage Highlands across the Ethiopian border. The forecast rains in the southwestern parts of the country are likely to be driven by the arrival of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and therefore signal the onset of Gu rains. This week may therefore mark the end of dry conditions which was attributed to reduced moisture influx due to the delays in the northward movement of rain-bearing ITCZ because of the lower-level cyclonic circulation associated with tropical cyclone Filipo in the Mozambique channel. Moderate rains are therefore likely over the southwestern parts of Somalia during the first week of April 2024. As a demonstration of the intense insolation associated with the present position of the overhead Sun, elevated temperatures of above 40°C are expected over southwestern parts of Somalia. While such is associated with thermal discomfort, it is the lifting of this hot and moist airmass that will precipitate into the rains in the coming days. Most parts of the country are likely to observe generally warm conditions of between 30°C and 40°C with only elevated areas in Ceerigaabo and areas in the northern coastal strip recording less than 30°C.

This forecast period marks the transition from the tail-end of Jilal to the forecast Gu season onset. Based on NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS), moderate to heavy rains are expected over most parts of Somaliland, Jubaland, South West, Hirshabelle, and Galgaduud with dry conditions likely to continue over most parts of Puntland. The cloudiness and rains in the northern parts of the country are likely to be mediated by the north easterly winds ascending the east-west oriented elevations. While patches of clouds and isolated rains are likely over the elevated areas in Sanaag and Bari, the intensity of the rains over Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed on the windward sides of the Harage Highlands across the Ethiopian border. The forecast rains in the southwestern parts of the country are likely to be driven by the arrival of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and therefore signal the onset of Gu rains. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Heavy cumulative rainfall between 100 mm and 150 mm is forecast over western parts of Badhaadhe district and central parts of Kismaayo district in Lower Juba region, central areas of Bardheere district and northern areas of Luuq district in Gedo region, central areas of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region, eastern parts of Dhuusamareeb district in Galgaduud region and eastern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region. The rains over isolated places in these areas particularly Badhaadhe in Lower Juba, Bardheere and Luuq districts in Gedo region and Dhuusamareeb district in Galgaduud region are likely to be more intense leading up to more than 150 mm. As the week progresses the very heavy rains over Bardheere district in Gedo region are likely to sum up to more than 200 mm. It is noteworthy that such rains are likely to fall within the in-country catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Moderate cumulative rainfall of between 50 m and 100 mm is expected over most places in the following areas: Badhaadhe, Kismaayo and Jamaame districts in Lower Juba region, Bardheere and Luuq districts in Gedo region, Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region, Dhuusamareeb district in Galgaduud region, Burco district in Togdheer region, Gebiley district and western parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, Baki and Borama districts in Awdal region. Moderate rains are also likely over Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Garbahaarey district in Gedo region, Qansax Dheere district in Bay region, Tayeeglow district in Bakool region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, Sheikh district in Togdheer, Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, and Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region. The rains in the northern parts of the country particularly those over the northern border between Gebiley and Hargeisa districts are likely to be observed earlier between 27th and 29th March 2024. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most of the other places in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Lower Juba, Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Hiraan, and Galgaduud regions. Light rainfall is also likely over most parts of central and northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region and a few places in Bosasso and Qandala districts in Bari region. It is important to point out that the rains over the upper catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers will be light to moderate in intensity. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast areas in Mudug region, Nugaal region, Sool region and Bari region. Dry conditions are also expected over a few places in the following areas: Ceel Afweyn and Laasqoray distrcist in Sanaag region, Cabudwaaq and Ceel Dheer districts in Galgaduud, Balcad district in Middle Shabelle, Qoryooley, Sablaale and Baraawe districts in Lower Shabelle, eastern parts of Bu’aale district in Middle Jubas, northern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region.

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management (FAO SWALIM) Project, has finalized the analysis and mapping of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers using very high resolution satellite imagery. Following the El Niño-induced widespread floods of 2023, there have been an up surge in reported open breakages. A total of 190 Open breakage points, 76 Canal flooding points, 518 River overflow points and 23 points closed with sandbags have been identified along the Shabelle River while 109 Open breakage points, 1 Canal flooding points, 226 River overflow points and 5 points closed with sandbags have been identified along the Juba River which require immediate attention. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have also been identified. The forecast above average rainfall during the coming Gu season is likely to lead to high potential of flooding over the Juba and Shabelle rivers especially where open and potential points have been identified. There is therefore an immediate need to close the open points and reinforce areas where there are weak river embankments. Intervening agencies are advised to take advantage of the current dry period until the rains start and carry out temporary or long term measures to close the river breakages. This will see a reduction of riverine flooding in case of heavy rains and consequently a massive reduction in economic losses to the country.

According to the Seasonal Climate Forecast issued by IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), there is a 55% likelihood that above normal rainfall (wetter than normal conditions) will be observed over most parts of Somalia. In the south these above normal rains are likely over Gedo, Bay, and most parts of Bakool regions. In the north, chances of above normal Gu rains are particularly high over Bari, Nugaal, Sool, Sanaag and Awdal regions, Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, and the southern parts of Togdheer region. Above normal rains are also likely over Mudug and Galgaduud regions in the central parts of the country, there is 40 – 50 % likelihood above normal rains over Hiraan region and extensive coastal parts of the following regions: Lower Juba, Middle Juba, and Lower Shabelle.

Several key findings have been obtained following a review of the 2023 Deyr (October-November-December) seasonal rainfall. Heavy cumulative rainfall was observed over the south and central parts of the country with a substantial 1,152 mm being recorded in Baidoa in Bay region representing five times of the station’s Long-Term Mean (LTM). The rainfall was even much heavier in Berbera in Wooqoyi Galbeed Region where the amount was 26 times the LTM. The Deyr rains began in early October over parts of Somaliland and central parts of Puntland spreading southwards to Gedo and Bay-Bakool regions. However, there was a sharp end to the Deyr rains particularly over Puntland and Somaliland with no single rainy day observed in Puntland in December. There was more than 30 consecutive dry days in almost all the stations in the country between 1st October and 31st December 2023. The observed rainfall amounts, and the length of wet spells particularly over the Juba and Shabelle River basins within the country were 100% in agreement with the forecast. The onset of Deyr rains across the country was also generally in agreement with the forecast with most of the stations realizing onset within a week of the forecast date.

Dry conditions: Most parts of the country are expected to remain dry during the coming week. The model predictions for the month of December indicating minimal rainfall amounts across the country and the Ethiopian highlands signals the end of the Deyr rainy season for Somalia. Temperature Forecast: The current forecast indicates likelihood of high temperatures ranging from 30°C to 35°C over extensive areas in the south, central and northeastern parts of the country. Milder temperatures ranging between 20°C and 25°C are anticipated over some areas in the following regions: Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Sanaag regions and inland parts of Bari region. Moderate temperatures of 25°C to 30°C are anticipated in the rest of the country.

Light rainfall of below 50 mm is forecast over some areas in the southern parts of the country in the coming week. These light rains are expected in the earlier part of the forecast week (13th – 15th December) over Badhaadhe, Kismayo and Jamaame districts in Lower Juba region, Ceel Waaq and Belet Xaawo districts in the Gedo region. Other areas expected to receive the light rains are the coastal areas of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Marca and Kurtunwaarey districts, areas in the Sablaale, Qoryooley, and Barawe districts in Lower Shabelle region, and Baidoa in Bay region. Although moderate in cumulative amounts, the rains over the Lower Juba region are likely to be spread out across the entire week and will therefore be less intense. Moderate rains above 50 mm may be observed in some areas along the southern coastal strip whenever the monsoonal winds blowing parallel to the coastline are accentuated by any elevated East-West oriented terrain. As these monsoonal winds blow southwards across the Gulf, there are also chances of trace amounts of rains over the northern coastal strip including Caluula and Qandala districts in Bari region and Berbera districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Dry conditions – The rest of the country is expected to remain dry during the coming week. The model predictions of minimal rainfall amount across the country and the Ethiopian highlands in the month of December signals the end of the Deyr rainy season for Somalia.

Weather Forecast for the Period 1st to 7th December 2023 Rainfall Forecast: Light rainfall ranging between 2 to 5 mm is expected in the northeastern parts of the project area. This encompasses the western regions of Berbera district, Banmadar and Cabdi Geeddi in the eastern regions of the Baki district, as well as Beeyo Liiban in the eastern parts of Lughaye district and Ceel Lay Heelay in the northern part of Hargeisa district. Conversely, dry conditions are expected to persist across the remaining project areas, with the likelihood of rainfall less than 2 mm. Temperature Forecast: Mild temperatures between 20°C and 25°C are expected in the southern parts of Borama and Gebiley districts, as well as the southwest of Hargeisa district. Northern parts of Lughaye district are expected to experience relatively higher temperatures ranging from 30°C to 35°C. For the rest of the project area, moderate temperatures between 25°C and 30°C is expected.

Utilizing the flood extent analysis conducted by UNOSAT on November 7th, 2023, it is evident that the onset of El Niño in the Horn of Africa has caused the flooding of 6,494 hectares of land in Luuq District. As per OSM data, this has resulted in the submersion of 316 buildings and 29 kilometers of roads. Additionally, 3,013 hectares of agricultural land, as per SWALIM agrimask, were submerged. This data emphasizes the immediate and significant repercussions of the ongoing El Niño event on the region.

By 20th of November 2023, approximately 43,455 buildings; 968 Km of road and 28,418 Hectares of farms in Belet Weyne were flooded, as depicted on the map. The flood extents were identified through a comprehensive analysis, incorporating data from a modified Global Flood Model (GFM) based on Sentinel-1 image of November 20, 2023, visual interpretation of UNOSAT Beletweyne city extent data of November 16, 2023, and Sentinel-2 image of November 20, 2023. This inundation had a notable impact on the region. The data derived from this analysis offers a detailed overview of the extent and consequences of the flooding, facilitating a more informed understanding of the situation for effective response and mitigation efforts.

Light Rainfall expected over the Central Parts of Hargeisa and Gebiley Districts, with Dry Conditions Beyond the Eastern and Northern Parts of Baki and Borama Districts Weather Review for the Period 1st and 7th November 2023 During the period under review, rainfall of at least 1 mm was recorded in Thirteen (13) stations (Graph 1), down from twenty (20) stations the previous week. The following eleven (11) stations, down from six (6) stations, observed cumulative rainfall equal to or greater than 30 mm: Caynabo (79 mm), Gumburaha (78 mm), Laas Dawaco (74 mm), Sheikh (67.5 mm), Yagori (66 mm), Balli Dhiig (60 mm), Salaxley (46 mm), Garadag (43 mm), Geerisa (40 mm), Bolohar (36 mm), and Lughaye (32 mm). The best temporal distribution of rainfall was realized at Caynabo (79 mm) where three rainy days were recorded. The most intense rains were those received in a single day over Yagori (66 mm), Geerisa (40 mm), Bolohar (36 mm), Lughaye (32 mm), Erigavo (26.5 mm), and Burao (17 mm). Weather Forecast for the Period 10th to 16th November 2023 Rainfall Forecast Light rainfall of between 30 mm and 40 mm is expected over the western parts of Hargeisa district and central parts of Gebiley district. Light rainfall of between 10 mm and 30 mm is likely over Baki district, eastern parts of Hargeisa district, southern and northern parts of Gebiley district and southern parts of Borama. Dry conditions with chances of light rainfall of below 10 mm are likely to prevail over the eastern parts of the project area. Temperature Forecast Milder temperatures of between 20 ℃ and 25 ℃ are likely over Borama and Gebiley districts, southern parts of Baki district, and most parts of Hargeisa district except over the northern where relatively higher temperatures 25℃ and 30 ℃. will prevail. High temperatures of between 30 ℃ and 35 ℃ are also likely over Lughaye and northern parts of Baki districts.

According to the coming week’s weather forecast, substantial rainfall is expected over Middle Shabelle region and the coastal areas of Galgaduud region. Additionally, the forecast indicates a range from moderate to heavy rainfall across Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, and Bay regions. Dry conditions are anticipated throughout the rest of the country, with isolated chances of light rainfall over Bakool, Bari, Sanaag, and Woqooyi Galbeed regions. For the spatial and temporal distribution of the forecasted rainfall, refer to Map 1. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over coastal areas of Cadale, Balcad and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region. Similarly heavy rainfall is likely over Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over inland parts of Cadale, Balcad and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region and Kismayo district in Lower Juba region. Light rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over Waajid district in Bakool, several areas in Lower Juba region, Middle Juba, Gedo, Bay, and Lower Shabelle regions. Similar conditions are likely in Caluula and Iskushuban districts in Bari region, and coastal parts of both Laasqoray and Berbera districts. Dry conditions are expected over areas around Saakow district in Middle Juba, Garbahaarey and Luuq districts in Gedo region, scattered areas of Bay region, extensive parts of Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud regions. Similar dry weather patterns are also expected in extensive parts of the entire northern regions of the country. Temperature Forecast: The current forecast indicates the likelihood of high temperatures ranging from 35°C to 45°C over extensive parts of the south, central and northeastern parts of the country. Milder temperatures ranging between 20°C and 25°C are anticipated over Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Sanaag regions and Inland parts of Bari region.

Juba River For more than a week now, run off from moderate to heavy rains have caused the water levels along the entire Juba River to overflow their riverbanks causing devastating floods which have led to damage to crop lands and road infrastructure rendering them impassable and cutting off access in to and out of towns and other human settlements. The rains over Bardheere have been particularly intense with up to 126 mm having been observed in the last two days. The 46-year old steel bridge at Bardheere was overtopped and eventually gave in to the floods and collapsed. The runoff from both ongoing and forecast moderate to heavy rains over the Juba River catchment will sustain the river overflows and flooding at Dollow and Luuq and worsen the flooding at Bardheere and downstream reaches. There is therefore SUSTAINED FLOODING along the entire Juba River with INCREASING MAGNITUDE at both Bardheere and downstream at Saakow and Bualle. The activated evacuation plans should therefore be sustained and along the entire stretch and upscaled at Bardheere and downstream. Shabelle River For about two weeks now, the water levels along the Shabelle River have been steadily increasing. On Saturday 11th Nov, arrival of the earlier projected floodwave from the Ethioipian Higlands led to a sharp rise in the water level at Beletweyne to bankful level (8.30 m). The subsequent riverbank overflow led to massive floods covering up top 90 % of the town only sparing the few elevated areas. The flow over the main bridge cut the town into two parts. Based on timely advisories from SWALIM, SoDMA/MoHADM and other partners, the population had been safely evacuated to designated higher grounds by the time the floods started. Subsequent voluminous inflows have led to further spread of the floodwaters as reported today. Floods have also been observed at Balcad as a result of river breakages. The river level at Bulo Burte is steadily rising, and now only 36 cm below the high flood risk level and 126 cm below bankful. At Jowhar the level is only 65 cm below moderate risk level. The runoff from the ongoing and forecast moderate rains over the Shabelle River catchment upstream in Ethiopia and near the Somalia border will sustain the current bankful water levels at Beletweyne. Additionally, voluminous water measuring up to 9 km can be identified on the current satellite images upstream of Beletweyne in Ethiopia. There is a high likelihood that the arrival of this flood wave will lead to further significant river level rise and flooding at Beletweyne in the coming days. The run off from the forecast very heavy rains over the Shabelle River catchment on the eastern parts of Bulo Burte in the coming week will add to the downstream flow of the flood wave currently at from Beletwyene leading to rise in river levels at Bulo Burte, Jalalaqsi and Jowhar to high flood risk levels then bankful levels. Flash floods are also expected in Bulo Burti and surrounding areas following the very heavy rainfall expected over the next 3 days. There is therefore ONGOING FLOODING WITH INCREASING MAGNITUDE at BeletWeyne and its environs and ONGOING FLOODING WITH MODERATE MAGNITUDE at Balcad and its environs and HIGH RISK OF FLOODING at Bulo Burte and its environs and PROJECTED HIGH RISK at Jowhar and its environs. The activated evacuation plans should therefore be sustained at Beletweyne town and the surrounding areas. The evacuation plans should be activated at Bulo Burte and surrounding areas. The evacuation plans should be placed on standby at Jowhar and surrounding areas.

Extremely heavy rainfall is expected over Gedo, Lower Juba, Hiran, and Togdheer regions; moderate to heavy rainfall is anticipated over several other parts except for Bari region and coastal areas of the country where light rains is expected. A three -days forecast shows that much of these rains are likely to be received between 1st and 3rd November 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) is described below: • Extremely heavy rainfall of between 150 mm and 200 mm is expected over several areas in Gedo region, Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, southern parts of Saakow district in Middle Juba region, Beletweyne and Bulo Burte districts in Hiraan region, southern parts of Togdheer region, and Las Anod. The rains particularly over Gedo region, northern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, southern parts of Beletweyne district and northern parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Buuhodle district and southern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region are likely to be very intense leading up more than 200 mm. Rains of comparable amounts is also forecast over the middle and upper catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Ethiopian Highlands. • Moderate to heavy rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over most areas in Bakool, Bay, Saakow and Jilib districts in Middle Juba region, Cabudwaaq district in Galgaduud region, Galdogob district, eastern and southern parts of Gaalkayo district and northern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region, and isolated areas in Lower Juba region. Towards the north, rainfall of similar amounts is also anticipated over several areas in Togdheer and Sool regions, Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, Ceel Afweyn district and southern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region, Burtinle district in Nugaal region, and isolated areas in Bari region. • Light to rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions, central parts of Lower Juba region, Bualle district in middle Juba region, and Jalalaqsi district in Hiraan region. Such rains are also expected over the central parts of the country including Galgaduud region, Xarardheere district and southern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region, Eyl and Garowe districts in Nugaal region. In the north, rains of such amounts are expected over several areas in Bari region, Laasqoray district and eastern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region, Gebiley district and central parts of Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed, Baki and Lughaye districts in Awdal region. • Dry conditions are expected over the coastal areas in both Iskushuban and Caluula districts in Bari region and the southern parts of Borama district and western parts of Zeylac district in Awdal region.

Vey light rainfall expected over the Berbera district in the northeastern parts of the project area, with dry conditions prevailing in the other areas. Weather Review for the Period 14th to 20th November 2023 During the period under review, rainfall of at least 1 mm was observed in thirty-four (34) stations, as illustrated in Graph 1. This marks an increase from the previous week's thirteen (13) stations with recorded rainfall. Twenty stations (20) reported cumulative rainfall exceeding 30 mm. The specific stations, their respective rainfall totals and rainy days are as follows: Laas Dawaco (122 mm in 2 days), Bulohar (110 mm in 2 days), Gacan_libah (97 mm in 3 days), Malawle (75 mm in 2 days), Gargara (61 mm in 1 days), Baligubadle (59 mm in 2 days), Gerisa (58.5 mm in 2 days), Berbera (56 mm in 2 days), Hargeisa (55 mm in 2 days), Salaxley (53 mm in 2 days), Xeego (50 mm in 2 days), Garbodadar (47.5 mm in 1 days), Lughaye (46 mm in 3 days), Sayla (45 mm in 1 days), Dhubato (43.5 mm in 2 days), Cadaadley (35 mm in 1 days), Dararweyne (34.5 mm in 3 days), Geedeble (34 mm in 1 days), Zaila (34 mm in 2 days), and Taysa (33 mm in 2 days). Having been recorded on one of the days of the week under review, the rains over Bulohar (70 mm), Laas_Dawaco (68 mm), Gargara (61 mm) and Gacan_libah (56 mm) were the most intense. The best three-days rainfall distribution was achieved over Gacan_libah, (97 mm), Lughaye (46 mm) and Dararweyne (34.5 mm). Weather Forecast for the Period 22nd to 28th November 2023 Rainfall Forecast: The weather forecast indicates very light rainfall of between 2 and 5 mm over the northeastern parts of the project area. These areas include western parts of Berbera, Banmadar and Cabdi Geeddi in the eastern part of Baki district; Ceel Lay Heelay, Bildhaaley, Bodale and Daradawanley in the northern part of Hargeisa district. Dry conditions with chances of rainfall less than 2 mm will prevail over the rest of the project areas. Temperature Forecast: Milder temperature of 20 ℃ to 25 ℃ is expected over some areas in the south of Gebiley district and in the southwest of Hargeisa district. Comparatively higher temperature of between 30 ℃ and 35 ℃ is anticipated in Lughaye district and some areas in the northeastern parts of Baki district. Moderate temperatures of between 25 ℃ to 30 ℃ are expected to prevail over the rest of the project areas.

In the next week heavy rainfall is expected over parts of Gedo, Bay, and Galgaduud regions, and moderate to heavy rainfall over most other parts of the country. Dry conditions with chances of isolated light rainfall are however expected in Bari region. Much of the forecast rains over Galgaduud and Bay regions are likely to be received between 15th and 17th November 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) is described below: • Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over the western areas of Gedo Specifically in Ceel Waaq, Belet Xaawo, isolated parts of Luuq, Dollow, and Garbahaarey. Likewise, Baydhaba in Bay, along with parts of Xuddur, Tayeeglow, and Waajid bordering Bay in the Bakool region, are expected to experience similar intense rainfall. In Galgaduud, comparable weather conditions are expected, particularly over Cabudwaaq and Cadaado. Additionally, isolated areas in Hiraan and Sanaag are also likely to encounter heavy rainfall during this period. The Ethiopian highlands is also expected to receive high to moderate rainfall over the forecast period • Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over extensive areas in Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, and Mudug regions. Similar conditions are also anticipated in the northwestern regions of the country, particularly over Lughaye and Baki in Awdal, the northern areas of Gebilley, Sheikh in Togdheer, extensive parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, as well as Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigavo in the Sanaag region. • Light rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle regions, parts of Dinsor and Burhakabar in Bay region, Jalalaqsi in Hiraan region, Ceel Buur, Ceel Dheere and parts of Dhuusamarreeb in Galgaduud, extensive part of Mudug, Nuugal, Bari, Sool, Sanaag regions, Zeylac and Borama in Awdal region, Hargeisa and Southern parts of Gebilley in Woqooyi Galbeed, Burco, Buuhodle and most parts of Odweyne in Togheer, most parts of Bosasso, Qandala, Coastal parts of Callula, Isolated pasts of Iskushuban and Qardho in Bari region. • Dry conditions are expected over isolated areas in Sanaag, Taleex, Qardo, Iskushuban, Callula, extensive parts of Bandarbeyla, northern parts of Eyl and Isolated parts of Lower Juba.

Juba River Catchment Over the past three days, there has been a notable increase in both the amount and intensity of rainfall in the Gedo region and the Ethiopian highlands. The current water levels along the Juba River are now only 8 cm below bankful level at Dollow, 14 cm at Luuq, and under 40 cm at Bardheere. The ongoing heavy rainfall, coupled with the forecasted moderate rains in the next 24 hours, with an accumulation of approximately 150 mm over the next three days across Gedo, are expected to cause the river level to reach bankful height. This presents a high risk of riverine flooding along the entire stretch of the Juba River. Additionally, there is a high risk of flash flooding in the Gedo region, particularly in the Garbahaarey district within the next 24 hours. Residents in Deeday, Buulo Oomin, Tuutees, and Dhayba should take all necessary precautions to ensure their safety. Necessary anticipatory action should be taken. Shabelle River Catchment There has been a slight increase in water levels along the Shabelle River. The water levels are currently just 8.0 cm, 50.0 cm and 70.0 cm below the moderate flood risk levels at Beletweyne, Bulo Burte and Jowhar, respectively. The runoff from forecast moderate rains within the catchment over the next three days in HirShabelle, is likely to lead to a gradual rise in water levels with moderate risk of flooding along the Shabelle River. There are also reports of high flood wave approaching the Somali-Ethiopia border which is projected to lead to a significant river level rise in 3 to 4 days. Flash Floods Within the next 24 hours, heavy rains are anticipated over most areas of Bakool and Bay regions. As a result, there is a high risk of flash flooding in low-lying and vulnerable areas, particularly in Buur Hakabar, Diinsoor, Qansax Dheere, and Baydhaba districts in Bay, as well as Waajid and Ceel Barde districts in Bakool. Most parts of Middle Juba, including areas around Jilib, are expected to receive rainfall exceeding 100 mm, with coastal areas of Jilib experiencing particularly high amounts of over 200 mm, posing a significant risk of flash floods especially around Jiirta and Kuunyo-Burrow. Similarly, areas along the border of Hobyo and Jariiban districts in Mudug are likely to receive rainfall exceeding 200 mm, potentially leading to flash floods over Xingaras, Dhinooda, Ceel Dhahanaan, and Ceel Bacduur. Residents around the mentioned areas should take precautionary measures to ensure their safety.

Light rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over the coastal parts of Adan Yabaal, Cadale, and Balcad districts in Middle Shabelle region, as well as Banadir, coastal parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Jamame, Kismayo, and Badhaadhe districts, and the border areas between Afmadow and Kismayo districts in Lower Juba region. Similarly light rains are also anticipated over areas bordering Bur Hakaba district in Bay region and Qoryooley district in Lower Shabelle region. Dry conditions are expected to prevail over the rest of the country in the upcoming week. Similar dry conditions are also expected over the Ethiopian Highlands. Temperature Forecast The current forecast indicates the likelihood of high temperatures ranging from 30 ℃ to 35 ℃ over extensive areas in the south, central and northeastern parts of the country. Milder temperatures ranging between 20 ℃ and 25 ℃ are anticipated over some areas in the following regions: Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Sanaag regions and inland parts of Bari region. Moderate temperatures of 25℃ to 30 ℃ will prevail over the rest of the country.

Between the 12th and 15th of November 2023, approximately 24,318 buildings, 562 km of roads and 14,697 Hectares of farms in Belet Weyne were flooded, as depicted on the map. The flood extents were identified through a comprehensive analysis, incorporating data from a modified Global Flood Model (GFM) based on Sentinel-1 image of November 14, 2023, visual interpretation of UNOSAT Beletweyne city extent data of November 12, 2023, and Sentinel-2 image of November 15, 2023. This inundation had a notable impact on the region, affecting 54% of buildings, 6% of the main road distance, and 41% of agricultural cropland. The data derived from this analysis offers a detailed overview of the extent and consequences of the flooding, facilitating a more informed understanding of the situation for effective response and mitigation efforts.

In the next one-week, heavy rainfall is expected over the coastal parts of Galmudug; moderate to heavy rainfall is likely over Gedo, parts of Bakool, Hiran, Lower Juba, and Middle Juba regions, and dry conditions with chances of isolated light rainfall in anticipated over Somaliland and Puntland (Map 1). The three -days forecast (Map 1) shows that much of the forecast rains over Mudug region are likely to be received between 8th and 10th November 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) is described below: • Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over several areas in the coastal parts of Galmudug state and in isolated areas in Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Garbaharey and Belet Xaawo districts in Gedo region, and Hudur and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool. The rains over the coastal parts of Galmudug are likely to be intense (more than 150 mm) with the localized storms over Ceel Dheer and Xarardheere districts cumulating to over 200 mm. • Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over several areas in Gedo region, Ceel Dheer and Ceel Buur districts in Galgadudd region, Xarardheere, Hobyo and Jaribaan districts in Mudug region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Hudur and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region. Towards the south, rainfall of similar amount is expected over several areas in Qansax Dheere and Dinsoor districts in Bay region, Jilib and Saakow districts in Middle Juba region, Jamaame district, southern parts of Badhaadhe district, western parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region. • Light to rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions, Kismaayo district and central and eastern parts of Afmadow districts in Lower Juba region, central parts of Middle Juba region including Bualle district. Similar rains are also likely over Bur Hakaba abd Baydhaba districts in Bay region, Rab Dhuure, Waajid and Ceel Barde districts in Bakool region, BeletWeyne and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region. In the central parts of country, the areas that are expected to receive rains if similar intensities include: Cabudwaaq, Dhuusamareeb and Cadaado districts in Galgaduud region and Galdogob district in Mudug region. • Dry conditions are expected over expansive areas in Somaliland and Puntland, except Gaalkacyo district in Mudug region where isolated light rainfall is expected.

Juba River Moderate to heavy rains received for about two weeks have generated run off that have caused the water levels along the entire Juba River to overflow their riverbanks causing devastating floods which have led to damage to crop lands and road infrastructure rendering them impassable and cutting off access in to and out of towns and other human settlements. Following heavy rains (125.0 mm) recorded yesterday 19th November 2023, the bridge at Luuq has been reportedly overtopped and is at risk of being swept away. The rains over Bardheere have been particularly intense with 108 mm, 35 mm, 96 mm and 58 mm of rain having been observed on 16th, 17th, 19th and 20th November 2023, respectively leading to sweeping away of Budubo bridge. Heavy rains have also been received downstream at Bualle with 71.0 mm being recorded yesterday, 19th November 2023. The light to moderate rainfall forecast over Juba River catchment in Ethiopian Highlands and within the Somalia border in Luuq district of Gedo region will generate runoff of less volume compared to previous week. However, the runoff from the previous moderate to heavy rains and ongoing light to moderate rains will sustain the river overflows and flooding at Dollow and Luuq. Run off from both ongoing and forecast moderate to heavy rains over the Juba River downstream catchment at Bardheere district in Gedo region and parts of Middle Juba region will generate enough runoff leading to increased river overflows and flooding at Bardheere, Saakow, Bualle and Jilib districts. There is therefore SUSTAINED FLOODING along the entire Juba River with INCREASING MAGNITUDE at both Bardheere and downstream at Saakow, Bualle and Jilib. The activated response plans should therefore be sustained along the upper stretch and upscaled downstream at Bardheere, Saakow, Bualle and Jilib. Shabelle River Water levels along the Shabelle River have been steadily increasing in the last three weeks. The river reached bankful level (8.30m) at Belet Weyne on Saturday 11th November 2023. The subsequent riverbank overflow led to massive floods in Belet Weyne town and the surrounding areas leading to damage to buildings, crop lands and rendering the passage into and out of town impassable due to bridge overflows. Based on timely advisories from SWALIM, SoDMA/MoHADM and other partners, the population was safely evacuated to designated higher grounds by the time the floods started. Moderate to heavy rains have been reported along the Shabelle River catchment with 70 mm, 31.8 mm and 29 mm received yesterday, 19th November 2023, at Bulo Burte, Jowhar and Balcad, respectively. The flow of the flood wave downstream coupled with moderate to heavy rains have led to river level rise at Bulo Burte to 32 cm above high flood risk level and only 48 cm below bankful. At Jowhar the level is only 10 cm below moderate risk level and 60 cm to bankful. Even if the flood wave is expected to flow downstream beyond Balcad in the coming days, floods have already been observed as a result of river breakages and flash floods. The light to moderate rainfall forecast over Shabelle River catchment in Ethiopian Highlands and within Hiran region in Somalia will generate runoff of less volume compared to previous week. However, the runoff from the previous moderate to heavy rains and ongoing light to moderate rains will sustain the river overflows and flooding at Belet Weyne and steady river level rise downstream at Bulo Burte, Jalalaqsi, Jowhar and Balcad. There is therefore SUSTAINED FLOODING at Belet Weyne and its environs and HIGH RISK OF FLOODING at Bulo Burte and its environs and PROJECTED HIGH RISK at Jowhar and its environs. The activated response plans should therefore be sustained at Belet Weyne town and the surrounding areas. The evacuation plans should be activated and sustained at Bulo Burte and surrounding areas, while it should be placed on standby at Jowhar and surrounding areas.

Moderate to heavy rains are expected over Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Gedo, Bakool and Hiraan regions. Given the general light rainfall activity in the next 7-days, much of the rains are likely to be observed between 28th and 31st October 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall is described below: Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is forecast over several areas in the central parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region and the northern parts of Owdweyne district in Togdheer region, central parts of Gedo region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Saakow district in Middle Juba region. Heavy localized rains over these areas are likely to exceed 150 mm with possible cumulative amounts of about 200 mm in Wogooyi Galbeed, northern parts of Owdweyne district in Togdheer region and Bulo Burte in Hiraan region. Very heavy rainfall of above 200 mm is likely over the upper catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Ethiopian Highlands. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over Baki district in Awdal region, southern parts, Sheikh and Berbera districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region, northern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, Ceel Afwyene and Ceerigaabo districts in Sanaag region, and Bosasso district in Bari region. Moderate rains are also anticipated over several areas in both Gedo and Bakool regions, Saakow district in Middle Juba region, and Bur Hakaba district in Bay region. In the central parts of the country, rainfall of similar amounts is likely over Gaalkacyo in Mudug region, Cabuudwaaq in Galgaduud region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Cadale and Balcad districts in middle Shabelle region. Light rainfall of below 50 mm is likely over the rest of the country except for the following areas where dry conditions are expected to prevail: several areas in Bari, Lower Juba and Middle Shabelle regions, southern parts of Bay region, non-coastal parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region, non-coastal parts of Xarardheere district in Mudug region, Garowe district and coastal parts of Eyl district in Nugaal region, and Las Anod district. Temperature Forecast: Elevated temperatures between 35°C and 45°C are likely over Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, southern parts of Dinsor and Bur Hakaba districts in Bay region, Jowhar district in Middle Shabelle region, and Sheikh district in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Milder temperatures of between 20°C and 25°C are likely over the highlands in central parts of Sanaag region and northern parts of Bari regions. The rest of the country is expected to observe moderate temperatures between 25°C and 35°C.

Moderate to heavy rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is anticipated in the northern regions of the country, especially in proximity to Gebiley, Hargeisa, and areas adjacent to the Ethiopian border in Woqooyi Galbeed. Part of Togheer region is expected to experience similar high amount of rainfall especially Sheikh, Odweyn and Buuhoodle districts. In Sanaag region the highest amount of rainfall within the forecast period is expected in Ceel Afweyn and Erigavo districts. Areas around Qardho and Qandala in Bari, as well as Garowe and Burtinle in Nugaal, should anticipate a comparable pattern. Rainfall of comparable amounts is also likely to be observed in many parts of Sool region with chances of heavier storms localized over Xudun, Taleex, and Buuhodle districts. Other parts of the country expected to receive moderate to heavy rainfall include Galkayo and Hobyo in Mudug, Waajid in Bakool, Diinsor in Bay, and Bualle in Middle Juba Region. It is important to point out that rainfall of similarly moderate to heavy amounts is forecast over the Ethiopian highlands. Within Somalia, the heaviest precipitation is projected to occur during the initial three days of the forecast period especially in the northern parts of the country. Light to moderate rainfall is anticipated in Ceel Waaq and Luuq districts in Gedo, Baydhaba in Bay, extensive areas of Bakool, parts of Hiraan particularly Jalalaqsi and Bulo Burti districts, Ceel Buur and Cabudwaaq in Galgaduud, and most parts of western Muduug. The rest of the country is likely to experience scattered light showers throughout the week as per the forecast.

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management (FAO SWALIM) Project, has finalized the analysis and mapping of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers using very high resolution satellite imagery. Breakages identified in the map have been classified into four different categories; Open, Overflow, Canal Flooding Point and Closed with sandbags. A legend/Key for further explanation of the different types of breakages is provided. A total of 170 Open points, 46 Canal flooding points, 152 Overflow points and 29 points closed with sandbags have been identified along the Shabelle River while 26 Open points, 10 Canal flooding points, 16 Overflow points and 14 points closed with sandbags have been identified along the Juba River which require immediate attention. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have also been identified. The forecast ElNino season is likely to result to enhanced rainfall in Somalia and Ethiopian Highlands with high potential of flooding over the Juba and Shabelle rivers especially where open and potential points have been identified. There is therefore an immediate need to close the open points and reinforce areas where there are weak river embankments. Intervening agencies are advised to take advantage of the current dry period until the rains start and carry out temporary or long term measures to close the river breakages. This will see a reduction of riverine flooding in case of heavy rains and consequently a massive reduction in economic losses to the country.

Juba River: High Risk of Riverine Flooding at Dollow, Luuq, and Bardheere and High Risk of Flash Flooding in Gedo region Shabelle River: High Risk of Flash Flooding in Hiraan, Bay and Bakool Regions and Moderate Risk of Riverine Flooding at Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti and Jowhar Juba River Catchment: Following the moderate to heavy rains, significant fluctuations in water levels have been observed along the Juba River since Wednesday 25th November 2023 when SWALIM issued its weekly bulletin. Today’s (29th October 2023) water levels represent an increase from 3.78 m to 5.46 m at Dollow, an increase from 4.58 m to 6.20 m at Luuq, an increase from 7.10 m to 9.00 m at Bardheere, and a slight decrease 7.40 m to 7.00 m at Bualle. The rains over Bardheere have particularly been heavy with 110.0 mm received on 28th and 86.0 mm received today (29th November 2023) with flash flooding incidences reported. The high flood risk levels have subsequently been surpassed by 46 cm, 20 cm and 80 cm at Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere, respectively. The implication is that the water levels are now just 54 cm, 80 cm and 140 cm below the bankful levels at Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere, respectively. The runoff from the forecast moderate rains over its catchment in the next 24 hours accumulating to about 100 mm in the next three days around the central parts of Gedo region, are likely to sustain the river level rise. The large volume of water upstream is likely to also lead to a rise in the water levels at Bualle to high risk level. There is therefore a high risk of riverine flooding along the entire stretch of Juba River particularly at Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere. There is also a high risk of flash flooding in Gedo region particularly areas bordering Kenya. Shabelle River Catchment:Fluctuations in water levels have also been observed along the Shabelle River. Today’s (29th October 2023) water levels represent an increase from 6.22 m to 6.40 m at Beletweyne, an increase from 5.48 m to 5.76 m at Bulo Burte, and a slight decrease from 4.28 m to 4.20 m at Jowhar. These fluctuations mean that water levels are now just 10 cm, 74 cm and 80 cm below moderate flood risk levels at Beletweyne, Bulo Burte and Jowhar, respectively. Although moderate rains received in Hirshabelle have not been at stations near the main river channel, the runoff from the forecast heavy rains over its catchment in the 24 hours accumulating to over 10 mm in the next three days in some areas in Hiraan, are likely to lead to a sharp rise in the river levels. Similarly heavy rains are likely in some areas in Bakool and Bay region. There is therefore a high risk of flash flooding in low lying and other vulnerable areas in densely populated areas in Hiraan, Bakool and Bay region. There is moderate risk of riverine flooding along the entire stretch of Shabelle River worsening to high risk after three days.