According to the weekly forecast, several areas in southern, central and northwestern parts of Somalia are expected to observe heavy (above 100 mm) to very heavy (above 150 mm) cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of more than 150 mm is expected over several areas in the central part of Lower Shabelle region including Kurtunwaarey, Qoryooley and Afgooye districts. Similarly heavy rainfall is likely over several areas in the southern parts of Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed. Very heavy rainfall is also expected over isolated areas in northeastern parts of Ceel Barde district in Bakool region, southern parts of Bulo Burti district in Hiraan region, southern border between Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigabo districts in Sanaag region, Sheikh district in Togdheer region, and Baki district in Awdal region. The rains over the border between Gebiley and Hargeisa may actually exceed 200 mm. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected in several areas of central Somalia including the entire Lower Shabelle region, northeastern parts of Baardheere district and isolated areas in Dollow and Luuq districts in Gedo region, Buur Hakaba district in Bay region, Hudur and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region, eastern parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, western parts of all Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region, and southern parts of Cabudwaaq and Dhuusamarreeb districts in Galgaduud region. Similarly heavy rainfall is likely over southern parts of Ceerigaabo district and southern and western parts of Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region, entire Caynabo district in Sool region, central parts of both Owdweyne and Burco district in Togdheer region, southern parts of Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed, Baki, Borama and Lughaye districts in Awdal region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over several areas in Awdal region, Woqooyi Galbeed region, Togdheer region, western and central parts of Sanaag and Sool regions. Rainfall of equal amount is likely over Badhaadhe, Kismaayo and Jamaame districts and eastern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, Saakow district, western parts of Jilib district and eastern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region, Dollow and Luuq districts and northeastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region, Diinsoor, Qansax Dheere and Baydhaba districts in Bay region, Middle Shabelle region. Comparable rainfall is expected over Waajid and Rab Dhuure districts and western parts of Ceel Barde district in Bakool region, eastern parts of all Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region, Cabudwaaq and Cadaado districts, western parts of Dhuusamarreeb district and southern parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region and Galdogob district in mudug region. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several areas in Mudug and Nugaal region, western parts of Bari region and eastern parts of both Sanaag and Sool regions. Dry conditions are expected in northern and eastern parts of Bari region including the coastal areas in Bandarbeyla, Iskushuban, Caluula, Qandala and Bossaso districts. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°Care expected in southern and central parts of the country, and moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C in the northern parts

FAO-SWALIM, the Somalia Water and Land Information Management, has completed an analysis and mapping project of river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers. The project utilized Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to identify and classify the breakages into four categories: open, canal flooding, overflow, and closed with sandbags. The open breakages are those that are currently open and were observed on the latest VHR image available. The observations reported refer to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. The map identified a total of 62 open breakage points, 36 on the Shabelle River and 26 on the Juba River, which require immediate attention. In addition, 15 overflow points and 39 canal flooding points were identified during this season. The Horn of Africa region has experienced five consecutive poor rainy seasons, resulting in severe hydrological drought conditions in Somalia and neighboring countries. The Juba and Shabelle rivers, which have their headwaters in the Ethiopian highlands, have remained near or below the long-term average since the beginning of 2023, negatively impacting agriculture production, domestic and livestock water use for the riverine communities. However, the low river levels provide an opportunity to repair the river breakages and weak embankments before the next rainy season. It is important to note that the methodology used in this analysis, is biased towards remote sensing interpretation, with limited "ground truthing" due to difficulties in accessing the areas. Open breakages may have been omitted or classified as potential in some cases where satellite images were unavailable or not clear due to heavy cloud cover or dense vegetation.

Somalia’s Gu (April-May-June) is the main wet season in the country, and is critical in supporting agricultural activities and replenishing water and pasture. The season begins as early as the second half of March, at the tail end of the Jilal Season, and the rains intensify in April with the onset progressing north eastwards almost mimicking the south-north progression of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that follows the overhead sun. Gu rainfall cessation occurs in June in most parts of the country, with the north- eastern coastline receiving the least amount of rainfall during this season. According to the recently released Seasonal Climate Forecast issued by IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), there is a 50% likelihood that below normal rainfall (drier than normal conditions) will be observed over most parts of Somalia as is evidenced by the yellow coloration shown in Map 1. Over the northern parts of Middle Shabelle there is greater likelihood (60%) of observing such dry conditions. In the north eastern part of the country, southern Togdheer and Lower Juba there are equal probabilities of below normal, normal and above normal rains over most areas (denoted by white coloration). The above rainfall conditions will be accompanied by warmer than normal surface temperatures (55% likelihood) over much of the country, with increased chance of up to 70% over the northern areas. Drought analysis using SPI have shown moderate multi- season drought conditions in the southwestern Somalia (Gedo and Juba regions) and severe conditions over Sanaag region. Seasonal climate scientists have observed that the poor forecast 2023 Gu rains are comparable to the forecast conditions of the years 2017 and 2021. However, due to the poor predictability of the Gu rain season, the forecast is expected to have high spatial variability. Further, the rainfall forecasts categories vary over regions; 170 mm and 195 mm thresholds are applicable over Somalia. It is worth noting that this forecast is designed for a regional audience that addresses the rainfall totals summed over the three-month period from March to May 2023.

Based on climatology the fourth week of March marks the end of Jilal Season. However this year there has been an early transition into the Gu (April-May-June) long rains season in Somalia. Several parts of the country received moderate rains over the last week with fourteen stations receiving more than 1 mm of rain as is shown in Table 1. The heaviest rains were recorded in Gedo and Bay regions specifically Bardheere (86 mm), Wanle-Wayne (47.3 mm), Luuq (34 mm) and Dollow (23.1 mm). Other stations that recorded over 10 mm of rainfall include Belet Weyne (18 mm) in Hiran, Iskushuban (17 mm) in Bari, Buhoodle (14.7 mm) and Las Anod (10.5 mm) in Sool regions. Continued dry conditions were observed over Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Nugaal, Galgaduud, Bakool, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba regions. Based on ICPAC’s rainfall forecast for the next seven days (Map 1), it indicates that most parts of the country will receive more than 10 mm of cumulative rainfall. The spread of the cumulative 7 day rainfall amounts are as follows: Light rainfall of between 10 mm and 50 mm are expected over Nugaal, Mudug, Sanaag, southern and eastern Galgaduud, southern parts of Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle northern parts of Middle Shabelle, most parts of Gedo and Middle Juba, northern and southeastern parts of Bari, most parts of Sool and central parts of Togdheer and the northern most parts of Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 150 mm are anticipated over most parts in Lower Juba, Bakool, Hiraan, Woqooyi Galbeed, southeastern Gedo, western parts of Galgaduud, southern Awdal, southern and northern parts of Togdheer and some areas in southwestern and north eastern Bari. Heavy rainfall of over 150 mm anticipated in isolated pockets in the northern Bakool, western Galgaduud, southern Awdal, southwestern and north eastern Bari regions. Moderate temperatures of between 20 °C and 32 °C are expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20 °C are expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the southern parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed, northwestern Togdheer, central areas in the northern Sanaag and Bari. The heavy rains received over the last few days on both sides of the Ethiopia-Somali border resulted into a sharp rise in river levels along Juba. In Dollow and Luuq stations, Gedo region, the river rose by over 2.5 m within 24 hours between 18th and 20th March. Dollow recorded 2.94 m increase, from 1.94 m on 18th March to 4.88m on 20th March, surpassing the moderate flood risk level. In Luuq the river level rose from 1.96 m to 4.5 m on 19th and 20th March respectively. The levels have slightly reduced in both stations (4.02 m in Dollow and 4.4 m in Luuq) over the last 24 hours. However, with the current forecast more water is expected from the Ethiopian catchment and within Somalia, posing a moderate risk of floods in the upper reaches of the river. Along Shabelle the river levels are still low, with no immediate risk of flooding. The heavy rains observed over Bardheere (86 mm) have been reported to lead to destruction of property and possible loss of life. Based on climatology, these rains represent a wetter than usual conditions. The observed and forecast wet conditions together with the cold conditions (temperatures less than 20 °C) expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the southern parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed, northwestern Togdheer, central areas in the northern Sanaag and Bari are likely to lead to partial recharge of surface water sources and vegetation regeneration giving a glimmer of hope for human and livestock survival. However, high temperatures (about 32 °C) that are forecast to succeed the wet conditions may lead to rapid evaporation thereby leaving no soil water to support vegetation regeneration.

Heavy rains received in Gedo region and other areas around the Ethiopian border over the last week resulted to a sharp rise in Juba river levels. Over the last 24 hours Bardheere station recorded heavy rainfall (92 mm) leading to significant flooding in the Bardheere town and surrounding areas. The river levels as reported this morning at Bardhere (9.00 m) and Dollow (5.14 m) surpass the high flood risk threshold for the two stations. These floods are reported to have caused significant destruction of property and farmlands. According to our sources, over the last four days, the floods in Bardheere have caused a loss of 13 lives. The risk of flooding along the entire reach of the Juba river remains high throughout this week, as the flood wave moves downstream. Therefore, communities residing along the Juba riverine areas must exercise extra caution as the water levels continue to rise. Along Shabelle river, levels have started rising gradually, but the risk of flooding remains low in the coming week. The rainfall forecast for the next three days indicates moderate to heavy rains over the Ethiopian highlands and within the Somalia-Ethiopia border. These rains will lead to sustained high river levels along the Juba and a rise in Shabelle river where the levels are currently low. In Bay and Lower Juba regions, isolated heavy rains of up to 150 mm are expected in the next three days and may result to flash floods.

Most parts of the country are expected to receive less than 50 mm of cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spread of the cumulative rainfall amounts are as follows: Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several parts of Lower and Middle Juba, Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Lower and Middle Shabele, Sanaag, and Togdheer regions, southern and central parts of Hiraan region, central areas of Galgaduud region, and isolated areas in northern Bari region, central and western parts of Sool region. Moderate rains of between 50 mm and 100 mm is predicted over isolated areas in the north-western parts of the country. Such rains are expected in the southern parts of Awdal, central and southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, localized areas in western and northern parts of Sanaag region, western parts of Gedo region and southwestern parts of Lower Juba region. Heavy rains of between 100 mm and 150 mm are likely over Isolated pockets in Baki and Borama districts in Awdal region, and southern parts of Gebiley in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Dry conditions are expected in central parts of the country including most areas in Nugaal and Mudug regions, northern areas of Hiraan and Galgaduud regions, southern areas of Bari region and eastern areas of Sool region. Moderate temperatures of between 20 °C and 32 °C are expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20 °C are expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sanaag and Bari regions.

Most parts of south and central Somalia have received moderate rains with good distribution over the last one week. In Bay and Bakool regions heavy rains were recorded in Baidoa recorded 144mm, Dinsoor 103.5mm, Quansadheere 66.4mm, Huddur 45.5mm and El barde 41mm over the last one week. Other places in the region where good rains were reported over the last week are Bulo burti 62mm, Bur Hakabar 50mm, Dollow 44.6mm, and Mataban 40mm. Somaliland and Puntland also continued to receive rains over the last one week, but the amounts were reduced compared the rainfall amounts recorded in the previous two weeks. The ongoing rains have contributed to a reduction of water stress, and pasture generation. However, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions as the amounts received are still inadequate to alleviate the condition. The rains need to be sustained for long period to sustain pasture and crop growth. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate to heavy rains in most parts of the Juba catchment within Somalia, the lower parts of Galgadud region, and along the Gulf of Aden Coast in Sanaag and Bari regions. The rest of the country is expected to receive scattered light to moderate rains. The Ethiopian highlands will receive heavy rains during the same forecast period. Juba river level has been rising steadily over the last one week, as a result of heavy rains in Ethiopia and within the Somalia. The levels reached high risk levels in Dollow and Bardhere, before starting to go down in the last 2 days. Shabelle river is also high, and above the short term mean. Given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands and in Somalia, there is medium risk of flooding in both rivers, especially in sections with weak or open embankments.

Most parts of south and central Somalia received light to moderate rains over the last one week. Some of the stations that recorded good rainfall amounts in the past week include Bulo Burti 28mm, Balad 19mm, Bardheere 18mm, Luuq 13.5mm and Jowhar 9mm. Widespread rains were also received in Bay, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions during the week. In Somaliland and Puntland there has been a reduction in rainfall amounts with most stations recording little or no rains. Most regions in Somaliland and the southern parts of the country have experienced pasture regrowth and replenishment of water catchments, and this has led to a reduction in water and pasture stress. However, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions as the amounts received are still inadequate to alleviate the condition especially in sustaining pasture and crop growth. The central regions of Nugaal, Muudug, Galgaduud and southern parts of Bari region have not received any significant rains and the drought conditions are worsening by day. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate to heavy rains in the southern regions. The coastal areas of Somaliland and northern Puntland are also expected to receive moderate to heavy rains. Exceptional cumulative rains are foreseen in Awdal especially in areas bordering Djibouti, which may result to flash floods. The central regions and inland areas of Puntland will receive minimal rains during the forecast period. Ethiopian highlands will receive moderate rains during the week in focus. Given the rainfall forecast, the river levels in both Juba and Shebelle are expected to increase slightly towards the end of the week with no risk of flooding.

There was reduced rainfall activities across Somalia over the last one week. Few stations in Somaliland recorded moderate rains, including Las-Dawaco 83.5mm and Dhubato 35mm, while light rains were recorded in Dararweyne 14mm, Lughaye 14mm, Zaila 13mm and Xaji – Salah 12 mm. In Puntland Calulla station recorded 13.4mm. The rest of the country remained either dry or received light showers. As the Deyr season comes to the peak, more rains are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions across Somalia. The rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate rains across the central and southern regions of Somalia. Parts of Bay and Bakool regions will however receive heavy rains, of up to 100mm cumulatively, within the coming week. The northern parts of Bari and Sanaag regions will also receive heavy rains in the coming week. The rains will be more along the coast of Bari, where cumulatively 150—200mm of rains are expected within the next seven days. The risk of flash floods in these areas is high, resulting from the heavy rains. Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togheer, Sool and Nugal regions will be mainly dry over the forecast period. Scattered light showers may however be experienced in few places. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive light rains, while the lower parts, near the Somalia border, will receive moderate rains in the coming week. River levels along Juba and Shabelle continued to decrease over the last one week. Given the rainfall forecast, the levels in both rivers are expected to increase slightly within the coming week with no risk of flooding.

In the last one week most parts of Somaliland and Puntland remained dry with a few stations recording light rains (Bandar Beyla 19mm, Galkacyo 5mm, Balli Dhiddin 2.4 mm). Little or no rains were recorded in Central Somalia during the same period. The Deyr rains however continued in the southern regions. Some of the stations that have recorded significant rains include Belet-Weyne 65mm, Mataban 61mm, Mahas 36mm, Bulo-Burti 36mm, Bandar-Beyla 19mm, Bualle 18mm and Balcad 12mm. The rains received so far provide an immediate relief to water stress, but more rains are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions across Somalia. The rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate rains in most parts of southern Somalia while few pockets of the central areas will receive light showers. Similarly, the Shabelle and Juba upper reaches in Ethiopia will receive moderate rains during the forecast period. Pockets of Nugaal, Sool, Sanaag and the coast of Bari are expected to receive light to moderate rains during the same period. The rest of the country is expected to remain dry. River levels along Juba and Shabelle are currently within the average at this time of the year. Given the rainfall forecast, the levels in both rivers are expected to increase slightly within the coming week with no risk of flooding.

The last one week has been characterized by heavy rains in many parts of Somaliland and Puntland. As a result of the heavy rains Qardho experienced severe floods on 23rd October that led to destruction of infrastructure and property. Las Anod recorded a total of 104.0 mm in one day; while in the same week Caynabo received 91.0mm, Elafweyn 77.5mm, Dhahar 71.0mm, Eyl 74.0mm, Salaxley 63.5mm, Balidhiig 61mm, Las Dacawo 57mm, Talleh 48mm, Galkayo 48.0mm, Xasbahale 42.0mm, Burtinle 39.0mm, Dhubbato 38.0mm and Sheikh 36.0mm. Moderate rains were recorded in few stations in the central and southern regions, including Wanle Wayne 18.8mm and Mahas 15.5mm. Large parts of this region recorded light or no rains over the past one week. More rains with good intensity and distribution are required across the country to bring to an end the current drought conditions. The rains need to be sustained for long period, and more spatially distributed to sustain pasture and crop growth. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates heavy rains in Togdheer, Sool, Hiraan, Bakool and Galgaduud regions. Moderate rains are expected in the rest of the country save for the coastal areas of Bari region, and parts of Awdal region that may receive little or no rains. Middle and Lower Juba areas near the Kenyan border will also receive light rains, same with the coastal areas of Lower Shabelle region. The Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive heavy rains. Shabelle river level is currently high and given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands, flooding may occur in sections with weak or open embankments. The risk is minimal along Juba river, as current levels are below average for this period.

The ongoing Karan rains /early kick off of Deyr seasonal rains continued to spread with intensity and in space over the last two weeks in the northern parts of Somalia with some stations recording 50mm to 100mm of cumulative rains. In particular, some of the stations that received good rains in both Puntland and Somaliland include; Las Anod 56mm, Baran 48mm, Burtinle 41mm, Xasbahale 37mm, Aburin 98mm, Dilla 97mm, Quljeed 71mm, Caynabo and Sheikh 48mm. Galckayo, in the central areas, received a total of 56mm while the rest of the country recorded little or no rains. The observed rains have contributed significantly to a reduction of water stress, especially in Hargeisa, Borama and Gebilley districts of Somaliland, but it will take sometime before the ongoing drought situation can be reversed. Other parts of Somaliland remains under severe drought conditions. Equally, immediate relief to water stress was realized in parts of Puntland following the rains; however, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to improve the current drought conditions. The central and southern regions continue to experience severe drought conditions. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate to heavy rains in Somaliland and Puntland. Most parts of the south and central areas will record light to moderate rains during the forecast period and areas bordering Ethiopia and Kenya will receive scattered showers. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands will also receive good rains. River levels along Juba and Shabelle rivers are currently below the short-term average. Given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands, the river levels are expected to increase from the second week of October. Users are advised that this is a forecast, and there may be discrepancies between estimates and actual amounts of rainfall received. Information on the forecast and observed river levels is updated daily and can be found on this link: http://frrims.faoswalim.org.

The Deyr rains continued to spread in time and space over the last few days with many places in Somaliland and Puntland, especially those bordering Ethiopia recording significant rainfall amounts. Notably, some of the stations where good rains were recorded over the last one week include Las Anod 167mm, Balidhig 40.5mm, Xasbahale 83.0 mm, Burtinle 39.0 mm and Eyl 74.0 mm. Wanle Wayne, in the central Somalia received a total of 9.0 mm, while the rest of the region recorded little or no rains. The observed rains have provided immediate relief to water stress in these areas, temporarily improving the drought conditions. However, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions. The central and southern regions of Somalia are yet to receive any substantial rainfall, and severe drought conditions prevail. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates heavy rains in Somaliland and Puntland with the highest amounts expected in areas close to the Ethiopian border. Moderate rains are expected in most parts of the South and Central save for Gedo region and areas bordering Kenya which are expected to receive little or no rains. Given the rainfall experienced in the Ethiopian highlands during the last two weeks and rainfall forecast for the coming week, the Juba and Shabelle river levels are expected to continue rising over the forecast period.

Many parts of Awdal and the western areas of Woqooyi Galbeed in Somaliland continued to receive moderate to heavy rains over the last two weeks. Some stations that recorded good rains over that period include Taysa 95mm, Borama 75.5 mm, Gebilley 63mm, Aburin 59.5mm, Hargeisa 59mm and Magalo–Cad 48mm. The Karan rains in this region have so far been good, and if sustained would provide relief to the current drought conditions. Other parts of Somaliland remained dry. In Puntland dry conditions prevailed except for light scattered showers in Iskushuban, Baran and Buuhodle districts. In the central and southern regions scattered light to moderate rains were recorded in Dinsoor 49mm, Baidoa 32.5mm and Mogadishu 41.3mm. The rest of the region continued to experience hot and dry conditions, worsening the existing drought conditions.

Over the last two weeks, light to moderate rains have been reported in parts of Somalia, marking the onset of Deyr season. However, many parts of the country remain hot and dry. The western parts of Somaliland continued to receive good rains over the last two weeks. Some stations that recorded good rains over this period include Amoud 162mm, Qulujeed 100mm, Aburin 84mm, Sheikh 81mm and Magalo-Cad 68mm. Bari and Nugaal Regions of Puntland also received scattered rains, with Baran station recording the highest amount of 132mm over the past two weeks. Few areas in the central and southern regions of Somalia received light rains. The rains received so far are however of minimal impact, and the country continues to experience severe drought conditions. The rains are expected to spread in time and space during the coming weeks. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates scattered light rains across the country. Few pockets of moderate rains are expected in Togdheere, Sool and Sanaag Regions. Galgadud, Bakool and Lower Juba will also receive moderate rains in few places. The Ethiopian highlands where Juba and Shabelle rivers originate will have moderate to high rains during the forecast period. River levels along Shabelle and Juba, and which have been rising since beginning of September have slightly dropped over the last one week. The levels are currently within the short term mean for this period.

Drought conditions improved slightly in the southern coastal areas and Awdal region in July following moderate Karan rains. Although the rains were not well distributed, they improved the vegetation conditions, which may be short-lived due to an influx of livestock into these areas. The other areas were dominated by dry and hot weather conditions, worsening drought severity in many parts of Somalia, leaving 90% of the country under extreme drought conditions. The groundwater levels across the country are going down, at alarming rates in some regions, from over pumping due to increased pressure to meet demand. Water trucking for domestic and animal use has been intensified. The Juba and Shabelle River levels are below the short-term average, with little water available to support irrigation of crops and other uses.

Four consecutive poor rainy seasons in most parts of the Horn of Africa region have resulted to current serious hydrological drought conditions in Somalia and neighboring countries.. Juba and Shabelle Rivers, with the headwaters in the Ethiopian highlands have remained below the long term average since the beginning of 2022, negatively impacting agriculture production, domestic and livestock water use for the riverine communities. The low river levels however provide an opportunity to fix the river breakages and weak embankments, ahead of the next rainy season. SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Five types of breakages have been identified, namely; open, overflow, potential overflows, potential breakages and closed with sandbags. The open breakages are those that are currently open as observed on the latest VHR image available. All the observations reported refers to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. 100 Open breakage points have been identified, 70 on the Shabelle River and 30 on the Juba River which require immediate action. 13 Overflows were also identified during this season. Jowhar district was worst affected along the Shabelle while Bu’aale and Jilib districts are worst affected along the Juba. Users are advised that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to access constraints. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available.

Over the last week, parts of Somaliland and the Southern regions recorded light rains. Specifically, some of the stations which recorded notable amounts of rain include; Jowhar 34 mm, Baidoa 24 mm, Kismayo 19 mm, all in the South; while in Somaliland, Wajaale received 17 mm, Gebilley 13 mm, Baki 10 mm and Borama 8 mm within the same period.  The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates light to moderate rains in parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer Regions. The coastal areas of Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba regions will also receive light rains. The uppermost parts of the Ethiopian highlands will record moderate rains, which may lead to a slight increase in river levels within Somalia in the coming week. The rest of the country will remain dry, which is normal at this time.  Current drought conditions, however, continue to persist across the country, even in areas where it has rained, as the amounts received are localized and inadequate to alleviate the condition.  River levels along the Shabelle and Juba are below the average for this period of the year. 

The western parts of Somaliland (Wajaale and Gebilley) and southern coastal regions, including Mogadishu, Kismayo, and Jamame, continued to receive light Karan lights over the last week. The rest of the country remained dry, which is expected at this time of the year. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week calls for light to moderate rains in Wooqoyi Galbeed and Awdal in Somaliland and the coastal areas of the Shabelle and Juba regions. Light showers are also expected in the inland areas of the Bay region during the same period. The Ethiopian highlands, whose rainfall is mainly responsible for the river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia, will receive light to moderate rains in the coming week.

Over the last week, Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Bay, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle and Lower Shebelle Regions continued to receive light Karan rains. Some of the stations that recorded rains include Borama 7.5 mm, Dilla 5 mm, Bottor 17 mm, Wajaale 18 mm, Aburin 7 mm and Gebiley 6 mm in Somaliland; and in the Southern Regions Wanle Wayne 46 mm, Mogadishu 28 mm and Jowhar 35 mm. The last two days have, however, seen a reduction in recorded rainfall amounts across the regions that have been experiencing the Karan rains recently. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week calls for a reduction of the Karan rains with light showers expected in Wooqoyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Awdal regions of Somaliland and the coastal areas of the Middle and Lower Shabelle regions. Light showers are also likely in the Sanaag region during the same period.

The last one week has seen a reduction in recorded rainfall amounts compared to previous weeks since the onset of the Karan rains. Most parts of the country remained dry for that period. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate rainfall in Awdal and the western side of Woqooyi Galbeed region; while in eastern Woqooyi Galbeed and parts of Togdheer Regions light rains are foreseen. Light rains are also foreseen along the coastal strip in the southern regions. The rest of the country will remain dry for the coming week. Moderate to high rains are expected in the Ethiopian highlands, where Juba and Shabelle Rivers originate. Despite the rains received in parts of the country, drought conditions persist across Somalia. The rains need to be well distributed and sustained over long period, to alleviate the current drought situation. The ongoing rains in Ethiopian highlands have led to a slight increase in river levels inside Somalia, and consequently restoring the river flow in the lower reaches of Shabelle which has been constantly reducing since May. River levels are however still below normal at this time of the year.

The last one week has seen a reduction in recorded rainfall amounts compared to previous weeks since the onset of the Karan rains. Most parts of the country remained dry for that period. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate rainfall in Awdal and the western side of Woqooyi Galbeed; while in eastern Woqooyi Galbeed and parts of Togdheer Regions light rains are foreseen. Light rains are also foreseen along the coastal strip in the southern regions. The rest of the country will remain dry for the coming week. Moderate to high rains are expected in the Ethiopian highlands, where Juba and Shabelle Rivers originate. Despite the rains received in parts of the country, drought conditions persist due across Somalia. The rains need to be well distributed and sustained over a long period, to alleviate the current drought situation.

The 2022 Gu rainy season in Somalia came to an early end in May, with depressed rainfall amounts recorded and forecasts indicating little to no rainfall through mid-June . The overall seasonal rainfall performance was poor. The northern areas recorded 30% to 60% of the average rainfall while the central and southern areas received 45 % to 75%. This marks a fourth consecutive failed rainy season since late 2020. Gu season rainfall has moderated drought conditions in most parts of the country as it replenished pasture and water resources. However, this improvement is expected to be short-lived as and drought conditions are expected to worsen throughout the prolonged dry Hagaa (July-September) dry season. Current climate forecasts indicate a 62 per cent chance of La Niña  during the June to August 2022 period (IRI). La Niña is generally associated with drought conditions in the Horn of Africa region, including Somalia. The next seasonal rains are not expected until mid-October and available long-range forecasts indicate that a record fifth below-average rainy season is likely across Somalia during the forthcoming October and December 2022 Deyr season. This could set the conditions for a worsening multi-season drought well into 2023. More than 80 per cent of Somalia is currently facing severe to extreme drought conditions. The drought severity levels are comparable to that of 2010/11 and 2016/17 as seen in Annex I. Water resources are expected to decline drastically during the forthcoming dry season as water demand and use increases. In Garowe, there was abnormal drop in ground water level of seven meters between October 2021 and May 2022 (Annex II). The Juba and Shabelle River levels are currently 30 percent below the short-term average, with limited water available to support irrigation of crops and other uses. The river levels are expected to decrease further in the coming weeks and months. The vegetation conditions that had improved in some areas as a results of the Gu season rains are expected to be depleted soon due to the low level of biomass recovery and likely influx of livestock into these areas. The Prospects for Gu season cereal production remain bleak, with crop failure expected in many areas . Due to the poor rains, some communities did not plant during this season. Dry and hot conditions will continue across most parts of the country during this dry Haggai (June/July-September ) season except for parts of Somaliland that will receive moderate Karan rains. With no significant rains foreseen until the next rainy season in October, and the La Nina predictions, the current drought situation will deteriorate further in Somalia. The negative trends are not expected to reverse until the arrival of Deyr (Oct-Dec) 2022 rains. However, the preliminary forecast for the Deyr 2022 season is also below average—FEWSNET

The period from June to September is generally dry in Somalia. However, Somaliland especially the western parts received localized rains during this period, known as Karan rains. Along the coastal areas of the southern regions scattered rains were also experienced during this period. Over the last one week rains were observed in parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Bay, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle and Lower Shebelle Regions. The rains have been mainly light and lacking spatial distribution, apart from few areas where moderate rains were recorded and surface water sources recharged. Some of the stations where moderate rains were received over the last one week include Kismayo 26.6mm, Baidoa 20.9mm, Jowhar 18mm, Buaale 14mm, and Qansax Dheere 14.5mm in the south; while in Somaliland Wajaale station recorded 40mm, Gebiley 29mm, Amoud 25mm, Baligubadle 20mm and Borama 14.5mm within the same period. Current drought conditions however continue to prevail across the country, even in areas where it has rained, as the amounts received are localized and inadequate to alleviate the condition. The rains need to be sustained for long period, and more spatially distributed to sustain pasture and crop growth. The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicate light to moderate rains in parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galdeed and Togdheer Regions. Bay Region and the coastal areas of Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba are also expected to receive light to moderate rains in the next one week.

In the last one week many parts of Somalia recorded moderate rains. In Somaliland, stations like Amoud, Borama, Yagori, Waridaad and Malawle recorded significant rains of above 70 mm. In the South, many stations including Bur Hakabar, Balcad, Bardheere and Buale recorded rainfall between 15mm to 25mm. The last 24 hours saw heavy rains in parts of Puntland in Bari region and areas around Las Canood. This has led to flash floods subsequently causing damage in different sectors. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates moderate to heavy rains in parts of the central and southern regions of the country especially in Galgaduud, Hiraan and Lower Juba, while light to moderate rainfall of below 30 mm is expected within the Ethiopian highlands. Most parts of Somaliland and Puntland are expected to receive little or no rains in the coming one week. Given the rainfall forecast, flash flooding may occur in the southern areas of Galgaduud region and along the coastal areas of Lower Juba between 04 and 05 May 2022, . While the rains experienced since the start of the Gu season have reduced water stress in many areas, it is worth noting that, the foreseen rains in the coming week are not yet sufficient to alleviate the current drought conditions in the country, and more rains with good temporal and spatial distribution are required during the season in order to improve the situation. Besides, the cumulative rainfall forecast for the month of May 2022 is expected to be below normal in most parts of the country according to ICPAC.    With the rains experienced during the last week in the country and the Ethiopian highlands, river levels along the Juba and Shabelle increased sharply over the last few days and will continue increasing during the week in focus with no risk of flooding.